The Minnesota Timberwolves appeared to be headed for a victory in Game 2 of the 2024 Western Conference Finals against the Dallas Mavericks, but star guard Luka Doncic had other ideas as he connected on a late three-point shot to give his squad a lead. Naz Reid, who was on fire for Minnesota, failed to hit a shot at the buzzer as the Timberwolves blew a big lead and now find themselves down 2-0 to the Mavericks as this series heads to Texas for Game 3 Sunday evening. The Mavericks have been able to execute at a high level and overcome some poor perimeter shooting, while the Timberwolves appeared to get complacent in Game 2 and it came back to bite them.
Mike Conley continues to be listed as “questionable” with a calf strain but he’ll suit up. Doncic, who has showed up as probable on the injury report, was downgraded to questionable ahead of Game 3. This is just gamesmanship as the superstar guard will be in action.
The Mavericks are 2.5-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook with the total set at 207.5. Dallas is -142 on the moneyline while Minnesota is +120.
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks, 8 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Timberwolves +2.5
The difference in both games has been clutch execution. The Timberwolves haven’t been able to string together scores or stops, making their play clunky at the end of games. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have been able to lean on Doncic and Kyrie Irving to deliver timely buckets. Dereck Lively, P.J. Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. have contributed in big moments as well. Minnesota will have to make some adjustments but now faces a challenge going on the road. Dallas is 18-16 ATS this year as a home favorite while Minnesota is 13-10 ATS as a road underdog.
The Timberwolves can take some lessons from the Nuggets in the last series. Denver lost two at home before winning three in a row. I think Minnesota’s tweaks will be enough to flip the result in what has been a tightly contested series. Give me the Timberwolves to get on the board Sunday night.
Over/Under: Over 207.5
As mentioned earlier, the first two games have been extremely close. Both have gone over this number but not by much. The Mavericks trend towards the under as the home side with a 19-28 mark to the over. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are 26-21 to the over as the road side. I don’t think we see an offensive explosion but both teams do just enough in what should be another close game to go over this line once again.
