The 2024 Western Conference Finals will continue Friday evening with the Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves squaring off. The Mavericks overcame their Game 1 woes from the previous two series with a win in the opener here, making this almost a must-win situation for Minnesota. The Timberwolves battled momentum swings against the Nuggets, so they shouldn’t be too phased despite the setback at home.
Dallas continues to list Luka Doncic as probable with a knee issue. Mike Conley is “questionable” for Minnesota with a calf strain but will play.
The Timberwolves are 5.5-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook with the total set at 207.5. Minnesota is -218 on the moneyline while Dallas is +180.
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves, 8:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Timberwolves -5.5
The Mavericks are 32-26 ATS after a win while the Timberwolves are 17-12 ATS after a loss, making this an intriguing matchup. Both teams have shown the ability to win on the road, so this game doesn’t carry as much urgency for Minnesota as one might have previously thought. However, I still think the Timberwolves will make the necessary adjustments defensively after falling short in the series opener. Anthony Edwards looked gassed after chasing around Doncic and Kyrie Irving defensively for most of the game, which impacted him offensively. Minnesota will have to make a change there. Minnesota will also have to be better from the free-throw line. The Mavericks shot poorly from behind the arc in Game 1, so that could be a spot where they improve. Dallas won Game 1 despite being -36 to Minnesota in the three-point category.
After struggling to make plays late in Game 1, I think the Timberwolves find more success in Game 2 offensively and limit the Mavericks in key moments. Give me Minnesota to level this series tonight.
Over/Under: Over 207.5
Game 1 barely went over this total, but both teams have some big areas for improvement. The Mavericks missed 19 triples of their 25 attempts, something they are unlikely to do again. The Timberwolves missed seven free throws, a spot where they can potentially get a few more points. I like the over to hit once again in Game 2, especially on a total that remains relatively low.