After getting swept by the 23-26 Cardinals, the Orioles have a great opportunity to get back on track starting on Thursday. The White Sox have lost five of their last six, bringing them to an MLB-worst 15-35. If this keeps up, they won’t finish with 50 wins on the season.
That should make them easy pickings for Grayson Rodriguez, who did quite well in his first start off the IL, striking out seven over six scoreless frames vs. the Mariners. Similar to Seattle, the White Sox have not been effective against right-handed pitching, as shown in Team Splits tab in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:
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The White Sox come into this one with a 22.9% strikeout rate against righties, which puts them in the middle of the pack across the league. Rodriguez has a 26.2% strikeout rate, and his line is set at 6.5 — a number he’s gone over in four of seven starts. Of those four starts, he finished with seven punchouts three times, so it’s not as though he tends to pulverize this number. But, that only makes this number feel safer to back toward the over at +120.
Similarly, Rodriguez has +100 odds to give up under 4.5 hits. The White Sox have the worst ISO, wOBA and OPS against righties, and the second-worst average. Rodriguez has held offense under this mark in three of his seven starts, including the aforementioned outing vs. Seattle. I lean toward the hits allowed play more so than the strikeout prop, but not by much. Creating a Grayson Rodriguez Same Game Parlay with these two plays provides +262 odds.
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*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
As for the hitters in this game, here’s a look at how some of them have performed over their last five games against their hits line for Thursday’s matchup via the Consistency Sheets in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:
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Between their struggles and Rodriguez’s promise, it’s easy to stay clear of White Sox hitters on Thursday. As for Baltimore bats, three names jump out as total bases options: Gunnar Henderson (-115 o1.5 total bases), Ryan O’Hearn (+120 o1.5 TB) and Ryan Mountcastle (+130 o1.5 TB).
Henderson is pretty self-explanatory. He may only be hitting .242 against righties, but he also has a .379 wOBA and .333 ISO against them. O’Hearn hits for the best average against righties of the trio, and he of course brings some pop (.380 wOBA and .213 ISO). Mountcasle has an OK .168 ISO against right-handed pitching, but his name pops up because Mike Clevinger actually has worse numbers against right-handed hitting (.364 average, 1.163 OPS and .484 wOBA) than lefties. However, it’s worth noting that Clevinger has a lower strikeout rate against lefties (14.3%) than righties (22.2%).
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
