We’ve got a weird one on Thursday. A six-game afternoon slate gets going at 12:35 p.m. ET and there’s weather concerns in half the contests, with rain expected in New York, Philadelphia and Cincinnati. Keep your head on a swivel.
Let’s find some studs and values.
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PITCHER
Stud
Luis Gil, New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners, $10,000 – For as much as I did not envision ever paying $10K for Gil in 2024, there’s some method to this madness. Everyone and their mother is going to use Paul Skenes ($9,500) — he’s the new, shiny toy. That could leave Gil at a depressed ownership on a small slate. Considering how well he’s pitched in May, that’s a tantalizing thought. In his last four starts, Gil has registered a 0.74 ERA and a 2.44 FIP with a 29.7% strikeout rate. That includes striking out 14 of the 24 batters he faced in his most recent outing. Seattle has the league’s highest strikeout rate at 27.9%. You can see where I’m going with this.
Value
Ryan Feltner, Colorado Rockies at Oakland Athletics, $6,000 – The starting depth on this slate is non-existent, but if you’re looking to save, I remain of the opinion that Feltner is not a bad pitcher. The advanced stats agree with me, as Feltner’s 3.76 xERA and 4.06 SIERA are far more digestible than his inflated ERA. He’s also rocking an 11.1% swinging strike rate, so there’s some strikeout potential in his arm. Then there’s the Oakland element of Feltner’s viability. After a hot start to May, the bats have cooled significantly, and the A’s own the league’s highest strikeout rate across the last two weeks (29.0%).
INFIELD
Stud
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants, $4,400 – Our exit velocity king remains at his most dangerous against right-handed pitching, entering Tuesday slashing .317/.368/.524 with a 149 wRC+ within the split. Mason Black ($5,500) is an RHP. Black has also struggled at the MLB level this season with LHBs, allowing the 29 he’s faced to compile a .692 slugging percentage. It’s a small sample, but one that’s worth noticing.
Stud
Michael Busch, Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves, $4,300 – We’ve had some high-scoring games at Wrigley this week and I expect that trend to continue on Thursday with AJ Smith-Shawver ($7,300) making his 2024 MLB debut. Smith-Shawver has been terrible in Triple-A this season, surrendering 2.61 opponent home runs per nine and pitching to a 6.88 FIP across 31.0 innings of work. Meanwhile, Busch owns a .221 ISO and a 129 wRC+ in his plate appearances versus RHPs this season. He’s a relatively inexpensive option in Chicago’s lineup with plus-power.
Value
Jeimer Candelario, Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres, $3,900 – Things have been going better for Candelario in May after a slow start. On Wednesday, the veteran picked up a pair of hits including his fifth home run of the season. I believe he’ll keep the good times rolling on Thursday. The Reds draw Matt Waldron ($6,200), who has been absolutely destroyed by left-handed bats so far in 2024. To wit, LHBs are slashing .321/.400/.560 off Waldron with a .416 wOBA. Yikes.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Juan Soto, New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners, $6,500 – Much like their starter, I feel as if the Yankees’ bats might go a little overlooked on Thursday, as a matchup with Luis Castillo ($9,000) is obviously not ideal. However, Castillo has quietly had his issues with LHBs in 2024, allowing 1.95 home runs per nine within the split. Soto, who hit another two long balls on Wednesday, is among the best LHBs in baseball. At least that’s what a .421 wOBA and a 178 wRC+ suggest. You won’t often get a slate where he isn’t extremely popular. Take advantage.
Value
Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants, $4,300 – Oddly, Reynolds has been at his best against LHPs in 2024, even hitting a grand slam off Blake Snell on Wednesday evening. Still, for his career, Reynolds has always shown more pop as a left-handed hitter, with a .209 ISO and a 123 wRC+ within the split. With Black’s aforementioned struggles, Reynolds figures to be in a fantastic spot on this slate.
Value
Jacob Hurtubise, Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres, $2,200 – This is for those of you rocking two $9K pitchers in your lineups. Nothing about Hurtubise’s stat line jumps off the page — though he’s proven to have a very good eye at the plate throughout the minors — yet he’s currently batting leadoff for the shorthanded Reds against RHPs. Waldron’s had his problems with LHBs in 2024. If Hurtubise can get a couple hits or steal a base, suddenly he’s one of the best values on the whole slate.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
