Every team is in action this Tuesday evening. Here are a few bets I like tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals
The Pick: Baltimore Orioles team total over 4.5 runs -125
The Orioles are in a great matchup tonight against Cardinals starter Lance Lynn. After a decent month of April, the wheels have come off in May. Through 14.2 innings, Lynn has a 7.36 ERA, allowing 14 runs (12 earned) on 17 hits. Opposing hitters are slashing .298/.379/.456 with a .367 wOBA against him, highlighting a very tough month. Lynn is a fastball pitcher, throwing three variations of the pitch. In order of it’s usage, he throws a four seam, a cutter and a sinker. Dating back to last season, this Orioles lineup is smashing fastballs. Against those pitches, in order, tonight’s projected lineup has a .336 wOBA, a .421 wOBA and a .336 wOBA against those pitches. Lynn is also struggling, as he has in the past, against lefties. This Orioles lineup can really load up on left-handed bats and will likely have six of them starting.
Once Lynn departs, he’ll make way for a shaky Cardinals bullpen. Over the past week, they’re combined to toss 22.1 innings and have a 4.84 ERA with a 4.94 FIP, a 4.03 BB/9 and a 1.6 HR/9. The Orioles should go over 4.5 runs tonight.
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San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pick: Giants run line -1.5 +124
Martin Perez is really struggling right now. He’s coming off a start where he allowed FIVE home runs through five innings against the Brewers. They tagged him for nine runs on 11 hits through five innings of work, which continues a really poor month for him. 15 runs have been scored on Perez through 15.1 innings against the Brewers, Angels and Rockies. Not exactly potent offenses if you ask me. To be fair, the Giants aren’t a barnburner offense either but the pitching matchup is not equal. Logan Webb has been good but also a bit lucky. He has a 3.03 ERA with a 4.87 xERA but those “lucky” starts came back in the early portion of April. Webb has been better in May in back-to-back starts against the Dodgers and Reds. I think the Giants win this game by at least two runs with the recent struggles of Perez at hand.
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
The Pick: Cody Bellinger over 1.5 bases +115
As Charlie Morton gets older, his success continues to follow. How does he do it? Well, Morton is a curveball pitcher. Over the last year, he’s thrown his curveball 42% of the time. Instead of it complimenting his other pitches, it’s the fastball that accompanies the curve. When you look at the league as a whole, it’s a pitch major league players don’t do well against. As of today, the league is hitting .224 against that pitch as a whole with a .277 wOBA and 75 home runs. For reference, against four seam fastballs, the league is hitting .243 with a .333 wOBA and 519 (!) home runs this year.
Bellinger has been an exception to hitting curveballs. Dating back to last season he has a .358 wOBA with a .379 ISO against curveballs by a right-handed pitcher. He has some of the strongest numbers against the pitch on the Cubs. Thus, I’m looking to take him to go over 1.5 bases against Morton. Even if Morton gives him more fastballs, as I’m sure he’s aware of Bellingers numbers, Bellinger has a .316 wOBA and a .154 ISO against the four seamer. I like this bet and I would sprinkle on Bellinger to hit a home run at +350
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
