The PGA TOUR heads back to Texas this week for the Charles Schwab Challenge. Colonial Country Club will host, and measures as a 7,289-yard par 70, featuring Bentgrass greens.
Even with last week being a major, we still have World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler in the field this week, along with Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Max Homa and Jordan Spieth.
Below I have outlined my two favorite bets for the week.
Sepp Straka to win (+4000)
Prior to last week’s missed cut at the PGA Championship, Straka had been rolling. The big Austrian finished T8 at the Wells Fargo and T5 at the RBC Heritage, which was on the heels of two T16 finishes at THE PLAYERS and Masters.
Accuracy will be paramount this week with the narrow fairways at Colonial, and Straka is one of the most accurate drivers on the PGA TOUR, ranking behind only Collin Morikawa and Shane Lowry in driving accuracy percentage.
Dating back to THE PLAYERS, Straka ranks fifth in this field in SG: Ball-Striking and seventh in Total Strokes Gained. And while he did fail to make the weekend at Valhalla, Straka did shine with his irons, gaining 4.2 strokes on approach in his two rounds.
Straka missed the cut at Colonial in his first two starts, but figured some things out last year en route to a T29 finish. I firmly expect him to build on that this week with the way he’s been playing of late. Having already posted two-career wins on the PGA TOUR, you know if Straka gets in contention he can close the door.
He’s a very enticing play at 40/1.
Aaron Rai to win (+5500)
As mentioned above, the name of the game this week at Colonial is accuracy and short irons, both of which are Rai’s specialty. The Englishman ranks No. 1 in this field in driving accuracy over his past 24 rounds, while sitting fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Ball-Striking and Total Strokes Gained.
Rai has yet to win on the PGA TOUR, but he does have two wins on the DP World Tour in his career. He’s also been trending in the right direction of late, posting a pair of top-seven finishes across his past five starts.
When Rai struggles, it’s usually because of his putter. However, he’s historically been better on Bentgrass, which is what Colonial features. This will be Rai’s third-career start at the Charles Schwab, with last year resulting in a T12 — his best finish to date.
I do believe Rai will win on the PGA TOUR one day, as he’s simply too talented a ball-striker. He very much reminds you of Emiliano Grillo in that respect, who just so happens to be last year’s winner.
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