The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets meet in Game 7 Sunday evening after a back-and-forth series which saw the defending champions go down 2-0 only to storm back and take a 3-2 lead before the Timberwolves sent the series back to Denver for Game 7. Minnesota is hoping to make the conference finals for the first time since 2004, while the Nuggets aim to avoid flaming out in the second round like other recent champions. The 2018 Warriors were the last title team to make it to at least the conference finals in the following season.
Mike Conley is listed as questionable for Minnesota but should be good to go after playing in Game 6. Jamal Murray is “questionable” for Denver but hasn’t missed a game all postseason.
The Nuggets are 5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook and the total sits at 198. Denver is -198 on the moneyline while Minnesota is +164.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets, TBD p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Timberwolves +5
After getting smoked in the first two games, the Nuggets covered in three straight to get back in the series. The defending champions then got blown out again in Game 6. The Timberwolves have been a better team against the number this season at 47-43-2, while Denver is 43-48-2 ATS. Minnesota is 12-10 ATS as a road underdog this season while the Nuggets are 22-23-1 ATS as home favorites.
Even though Denver went 33-8 at home during the regular season and 3-0 during the first round, the Timberwolves have shown they can be competitive on the road. The defending champions should do enough to win this game but I think it’ll be close enough for Minnesota to cover.
Over/Under: Over 198
Minnesota is 26-20 to the over as the road team while Denver is 20-27 to the over at home. In this particular series, the over has hit on this total four times with blowouts in Games 2 and 6 being the exceptions. I do anticipate both teams stepping up defensively but this number is too low to back the under. I’ll take the over in what should be a tight Game 7 Sunday evening.