The Oklahoma City Thunder will attempt to stave off elimination when they visit the Dallas Mavericks Saturday evening in Game 6 in this second-round series in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. The Thunder are coming off a tough loss at home in Game 5, while the Mavericks have the chance to get back to the Western Conference Finals after a one-season gap.
Oklahoma City remains clean on the injury front. Luka Doncic is probable as he deals with a knee issue while Maxi Kleber and Olivier-Maxence Prosper remain out.
The Mavericks are 4-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook with the total coming in at 209.5. Dallas is -180 on the moneyline while Oklahoma City is +150.
Thunder vs. Mavericks, 8 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Mavericks -4
The Mavericks are 1-1 ATS in this series as the favorite, while going 2-1 as the underdog. They likely feel they should’ve won Game 4 at home to go up 3-1 heading into Game 5, although poor free-throw shooting did them in. The Thunder did the hard work in Game 4 to level the series at 2-2 but now have to once again win on the road to stay alive.
Both these teams have been really good against the spread this season. The Mavericks are 55-38 ATS while the Thunder are 51-39-1 ATS. Oklahoma City is 12-10-1 ATS as the underdog and 8-8-1 ATS as the road underdog, while Dallas is 38-20 ATS as the favorite and 18-15 ATS as the home favorite. After squandering an opportunity to go up 3-1 in Game 4, I don’t think the Mavericks falter in front of their home fans again. Doncic and Kyrie Irving do enough to send Dallas to the conference finals.
Over/Under: Under 209.5
The first two games went over this number, while the last three have gone under this total. There have been some good adjustments from both teams in the series, along with a cooling off from some red-hot role players. I think we continue to see solid defense across the board in Game 6, which will lead to the under hitting again.