Almost two months of Major League Baseball are in the books. It’s time to attack the sportsbooks. Let’s take a look at some of the best bets for the Saturday, May 18 MLB betting card.
Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Saturday’s slate of MLB games.
Follow along on Twitter (@Race4thePrize) for updates.
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Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers
The Pick: Elly De La Cruz Alternate Total Bases 4+ (+425)
This is Elly’s city. It’s Elly A. Growing up in the Dominican Republic, De La Cruz told everyone he was from Los Angeles. How did he fall in love with Hollywood? The kid played a lot of Grand Theft Auto on PlayStation. Can’t make this stuff up. This sounds like the worst narrative to put money behind, but he’s just a kid. It wasn’t long ago that De La Cruz believed in Santa Claus. Belief is powerful. The mind can do remarkable things. If batters feel like they own a specific pitcher, they often produce results. If De La Cruz believes that he owns L.A., then let the mystical powers of the universe work their magic.
Most gamblers are apprehensive to put money behind positive juju. Save that for the ladies in the crazy hats with a cocktail in one hand at the Derby. No worries. There are actual data and hard numbers that support De La Cruz in a matchup with Walker Buehler. Since Buehler’s return from Tommy John Surgery, he hasn’t looked sharped. There’s bound to be rust after two years. And in most cases, the rust never goes away. A pitcher is never the same. Noticeably, strikeout rates decrease for post-surgery pitchers. Buehler’s K-Rate was already sinking. This decrease leads to more contact and more contact leads to more home runs and bases. In two starts, Buehler is sporting a 3.68 HR/9. It’s a small sample, but as the sample increases, what would suggest any improvement? It won’t be this high all season, but it’s going to be high for the season based on his situation. His situation is worse with De La Cruz at the plate. The young superstar was “0-for” on Friday, but on Thursday, he went 4-for-4 with a walk and four stolen bases in the Reds 7-2 win. Against right-handed pitching, Elly hits lefty and has belted eight of his nine home runs — .416 wOBA, .320 ISO, 166 wRC+ and 17 Stolen Bases.
Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros
The Pick: Brewers Money Line (+130)
Is Justin Verlander back on track or has age finally caught up with him? Father time is undefeated. No one lasts forever. He looked sharp in his last outing. That’s expected against his former team because Detroit can’t hit right-handed pitching — 24.5% K-Rate, .298 wOBA, .140 ISO and a 92 wRC+. Guess who can hit right-handed pitching? The Brewers have a .342 wOBA and 121 wRC+.
The Astros are hot. They’re winners of eight of their last 10 games. Their schedule has been soft. Bryse Wilson is heating up and he’s not soft. The former Top-100 prospect for the Braves was traded to the Pirates. He struggled and without options ended up with the Brewers. He reestablished himself as a reliever in 2023 by pitching 76.2 innings and maintaining a 2.58 ERA. The reinvention continues. Wilson joined the rotation in late April. He hasn’t been great, but he keeps his team in the ball game (2.65 ERA). The Brewers bullpen picks up the rest. Their 16 wins lead MLB.
Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals
The Pick: Red Sox Alternate Run Line -2.5 (+209)
The Cardinals scored 10 runs on the Red Sox on Friday night. It’s the Red Sox turn to run up the runs on Saturday. Miles Mikolas is 3-5 with a 6.19 ERA. He doesn’t do anything particularly well besides eat innings. The Miles Mikolas magic of 2022 has vanished. His strikeout rate is anemic (16.6%) and his strand rate is dangerous (64.7%).
Boston has been average against right-handed pitching this season (98 wRC+). Their elite power (.169 ISO) is held back by their alarming strikeout rate (24.4%). Their weakness won’t matter in a matchup with Mikolas. What matters is their power, and that should power them to a win by a comfortable margin
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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