The Dodgers are -310 favorites on Thursday, and it’s not a real shock as to why. Tyler Glasnow has been electric to start his career in L.A. On top of that, the Reds lineup he’ll square off against doesn’t have great numbers against right-handed pitching.
Cincinnati comes into this matchup with a 26.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, as well as a .294 wOBA. Here’s a look at some of their other numbers against right-handed pitching via the Team Splits tab in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub.
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For a guy who has struck out 73 and only given up 34 hits over 57 innings, this is a chance for him to have a career night.
Glasnow’s lines are set at the following:
- 8.5 strikeouts thrown
- 18.5 outs recorded
- 3.5 hits allowed
Glasnow has gone over that strikeout number in five of his last six starts. With the over set at -110, that’s absolutely a playable number. He’s gone over the outs recorded mark in back-to-back outings and four of his last six. With that odds set at +160, it’s interesting.
But the play I’m rolling with is Glasnow under 3.5 hits allowed at +105. He’s held offenses under this line in five of his nine starts. Still, it’s a tough number to work around, so the near even-money odds add up.
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*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
As for the hitters in this game, here’s a look at how some of them have performed over their last five games against their hits line for Thursday’s matchup via the Consistency Sheets in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:
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It’s between Will Smith and Mookie Betts in this one.
Betts is on fire, and he seems in line to either get multiple hits or an extra-base hit (or both) on a given night. With his total bases line at +110 and Brent Suter opening this game for Cincy, Betts could cover this play right away.
Smith gets the nod for top spot, but by a smidge. He hasn’t been as hot as Betts, but he’s got some momentum coming into this series and has +135 odds to go over 1.5 total bases. More importantly, he is annihilating left-handed pitching. He has a .302 ISO, .525 wOBA and .442 average against them in 53 plate appearances.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
