It’s Wednesday. That means a full, all-day slate of baseball for your betting pleasure. However, in this article, we’ll be focusing solely on this evening’s crop of games. Why? Because I said so. That’s why. No more questions.
Let’s dive in.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25263747/IMG_9722.jpeg)
Bet at a top rated Sportsbook!
View the latest odds and bet online legally at a top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!*
*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
Cleveland Guardians at Texas Rangers
Rangers -1.5 (+124)
Between these two squads, it’s actually the Guardians who have been amazing on the run line. Cleveland comes into Wednesday’s action covering 62.8% of the time — the second-best mark in all of baseball. Yet, when looking at this pitching matchup, I see a pretty distinct advantage for the Rangers.
As much as it pains me to say it: Carlos Carrasco is washed. Heck, the writing might’ve even been on the wall last season. Among the 127 pitchers to throw 130-plus innings since the beginning of 2023, Carrasco’s 6.35 ERA is the highest. In that same span, the veteran right-hander has seen his strikeout rate tumble to just 16.3%, while he’s surrendered a jarring 1.73 opponent home runs per nine. Specific to 2024, Carrasco’s seen another dip in his average fastball velocity, which at 90.9 mph sits in the ninth percentile of qualified pitchers. The stuff is simply gone. That’s a thing that can happen at 37-years-old.
On the other side of the ledger we find Jon Gray. His stuff is just fine. In fact, after struggling in his opening outing of 2024, Gray’s been almost unhittable. In his last eight starts, the RHP is in possession of a 1.50 ERA and a 1.85 FIP. That’s a 42.0 inning stretch where Gray has limited opponents to a .225/.265/.325 slash line. If that trend continues this evening, Cleveland won’t be able to score nearly enough to keep pace with Texas.
Refine your research with the DraftKings Sportsbook’s Stats Hub!
From Consistency Sheets and Matchup Tools to System Tools and Player Splits, the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats hub features tools to help with your betting research!
Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros
SGP: Astros ML + Astros Over 4.5 Runs (-115)
My first thought with this game was a straight bet on the Astros’ team total, but it was pretty juiced up at -135. So, let’s add Houston moneyline in there to sweeten the pot. I mean, if the Astros score five runs on Wednesday with Framber Valdez on the mound, I think there’s a pretty reasonable chance they win. The left-hander hasn’t looked like his best self so far in 2024 — injuries haven’t helped — yet Valdez does enter today’s action with a 3.64 ERA and a 3.67 FIP. Even a diminished version of Valdez is still very good.
Now let’s get to the elephant in the room: Aaron Brooks. It’s a name that some people might remember from playing KBO DFS in 2020. However, Brooks’ transition back to MLB hasn’t been smooth. After leaving Korea in 2021, the 34-year-old signed with the Cardinals and posted a 10.18 xERA in 9.1 innings in 2022. He has not pitched in the majors since. Really, the only reason he’s been recalled for this tilt is desperation. Oakland currently has six starters on its IL and another two unable to pitch with nagging issues. For as poor as this season has started for the Astros, they still rank second in the American League with a 114 wRC+. They can hit and I expect Brooks to struggle immensely.
Place your MLB bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
