Update: Mike Conley is a late scratch with Achilles soreness, while Murray is in for Denver. The line is now Nuggets -4.5 and the total comes in at 206.5. I’ll stick with Denver as the ATS pick and the under on the total.
The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets will continue their second-round series in the 2024 NBA Playoffs Tuesday evening with the matchup returning back to the Mile High City for Game 5 tied 2-2. The road team has won every game in the series so far but the Nuggets are hoping to break that streak at the perfect time to grab a 3-2 advantage. The Timberwolves suffered back-to-back losses after not losing a single clash through six playoff games, so we’ll see how much their resolve is tested going up against the defending champions.
Minnesota is clean on the injury front. Jamal Murray continues to be listed as questionable but he’s going to play. Reggie Jackson and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who have played in every game as well, are off the injury report.
The Nuggets are 4-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook with the total set at 205.5. Denver is -175 on the moneyline while Minnesota is +145.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets, 10:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Nuggets -4
The difference through four games has been the play of Murray and Karl-Anthony Towns. In the first two games, Denver’s point guard was averaging 12.5 points on 28.1% shooting. Those numbers became 21.5 points and 50% shooting over Games 3 and 4. On the flip side, Towns put up 23.5 points on 64.3% shooting in Games 1 and 2. His performance over the next two games was 13.5 points on 36% shooting. Nikola Jokic and Anthony Edwards will get all the headlines but its these secondary stars who drive results.
The Nuggets were clearly caught off guard in the first two games, and the Game 2 blowout was truly embarrassing for them. I do think the defending champions have found something over the last two contests to better match up with Minnesota, and they’ll carry that into Game 5 at home. Give me Denver to take the 3-2 lead in this series.
Over/Under: Under 205.5
Games 2 and 3 in this series were not close, while Games 1 and 4 were decided in the final minutes. The last two games have gone over this number, while the first two contests went under this total. I do see Game 5 playing out closer to Games 1 and 4, and I think Denver’s defense finally shows up at home like it did all season. Give me the under in tonight’s game.