The NFL schedule should be released Wednesday May 15th. The schedule will give us the exact dates of every game, but we already know who each team will play. We will likely see lines move a little once the schedule is released, as that’s when fans get excited. We also learn how many rest and travel days teams are given, which can help us discern which teams might have an advantage. But, the actual matchups are the meat of the dish and we have those just waiting for us to get into.
My favorite way to look at a team’s strength of schedule is to add up each team’s opponent’s projected win-totals and compare them to each other. Vegas usually has a better handle on team wins than your average fan, so it’s a good place to start. And when you compare it to the traditional way of looking at SOS, which factor’s in the opponent’s record from the previous season, you can see why looking forward instead of backwards makes much more sense.
Below you can see how each team’s strength of schedule ranks, with 32 being the easiest schedule based on win totals, and 1 being the toughest, per Sharp Football Analysis. We’ve also added SOS based on the previous year’s record for comparison.
Win Total SOS, 2024 NFL
| TEAM | SOS Rank (win totals) | 2023 record SOS Rank | Opp. Record | Opp. Win Pct. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM | SOS Rank (win totals) | 2023 record SOS Rank | Opp. Record | Opp. Win Pct. |
| Atlanta Falcons | 32 | 31 | 131-158-0 | 0.453 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 31 | 27 | 138-151-0 | 0.478 |
| Chicago Bears | 30 | 29 | 135-154-0 | 0.467 |
| New York Jets | 29 | 12 | 146-143-0 | 0.505 |
| New Orleans Saints | 28 | 31 | 131-158-0 | 0.453 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 27 | 16 | 145-144-0 | 0.502 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 26 | 21 | 142-147-0 | 0.491 |
| Miami Dolphins | 25 | 24 | 141-148-0 | 0.488 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 24 | 21 | 142-147-0 | 0.491 |
| Carolina Panthers | 23 | 29 | 135-154-0 | 0.467 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 22 | 27 | 138-151-0 | 0.478 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 21 | 16 | 145-144-0 | 0.502 |
| Washington Commanders | 20 | 16 | 145-144-0 | 0.502 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 19 | 8 | 148-141-0 | 0.512 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 18 | 24 | 141-148-0 | 0.488 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 17 | 24 | 141-148-0 | 0.488 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 16 | 12 | 146-143-0 | 0.505 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 15 | 12 | 146-143-0 | 0.505 |
| Green Bay Packers | 14 | 4 | 152-137-0 | 0.526 |
| New York Giants | 13 | 6 | 149-140-0 | 0.516 |
| Detroit Lions | 12 | 11 | 147-142-0 | 0.509 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 11 | 12 | 146-143-0 | 0.505 |
| Buffalo Bills | 10 | 6 | 149-140-0 | 0.516 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 9 | 8 | 148-141-0 | 0.512 |
| Denver Broncos | 8 | 20 | 143-146-0 | 0.495 |
| Houston Texans | 7 | 4 | 152-137-0 | 0.526 |
| Tennessee Titans | 6 | 21 | 142-147-0 | 0.491 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 5 | 16 | 145-144-0 | 0.502 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 4 | 2 | 155-134-0 | 0.536 |
| Cleveland Browns | 3 | 1 | 158-131-0 | 0.547 |
| New England Patriots | 2 | 8 | 148-141-0 | 0.512 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1 | 3 | 154-135-0 | 0.533 |
Easiest schedules
The Falcons once again have one of the easiest schedules, as they are in one of the worst divisions in the league. This time they may be able to take advantage of that record, as they have a competent quarterback in Kirk Cousins and a decent amount of playmakers on offense. Drafting a backup QB with their No. 8 pick likely won’t help them out anytime soon.
The Chargers will start the Jim Harbaugh era with an easy strength of schedule, as they get the Raiders and Broncos twice in their division. They also face a tough AFC North, but balance that out with the weak NFC South. Their one-off games will be against the Titans, Patriots and Cardinals. All-in-all, that sets up for a nice start to Harbaugh’s NFL return.
Toughest schedules
The Steelers have the toughest schedule on paper, as they are in one of the best divisions in the league and they also face the NFC East and AFC West. The AFC West is actually fairly weak outside of Kansas City, but Kansas City is as tough as it gets.
The New England Patriots come in with the second-toughest schedule based on Vegas win totals. They get a tough division, with the Bills and Dolphins along with the Jets, who should have Aaron Rodgers back. They also play the NFC West, which is always tough and will have Kyler Murray back in Arizona. The AFC South is their other matchup, which isn’t quite as tough, but you can make cases for the Colts, Jaguars, and Titans and we know the Texans already took a big step up last year.