One important thing to note before digging into specific systems: The Systems tool in the DraftKings Stats Hub now allows you to filter systems by team and not solely by grading. Here’s what the different views looks like:
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SYSTEM: Underdogs on the Run Line after a loss
This system has been one of the more reliable ones throughout the season. It’s been in play for 347 games and hit in 207 of them (59.65%). Technically, the play has seen a dip over the last month, coming through 56.77% of the time. But this is clearly still a play worth looking at on a daily basis.
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A whopping eight game fit this system on Tuesday:
- NYM vs. PHI
- CWS vs. WSH
- MIA @ DET
- CHC @ ATL
- OAK @ HOU
- KC @ SEA
- LAA vs. STL
- SF vs. LAD
The Angels interest me the most. They’re 13-10 on the Run Line in this system and 6-4 on the Run Line in the home games that fit this system.
Sonny Gray is a tough matchup for any team right now, but his offense is in a tough spot. The Cardinals have one of the worst offenses against left-handed pitching in all of baseball, entering Tuesday with a .188 average and .099 ISO in the setting. The Cardinals have won by two-plus in each of Gray’s four wins, but three of those games were decided by three or two runs. So, it’s not as though the offense typically runs wild when he’s on the mound.
SYSTEM PICK FOR MAY 14
LAA +1.5 (-148)
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SYSTEM: Under on total when favorite did not play the previous day
This system isn’t in action a ton, given the way the MLB schedule works. It had a solid start, but hit a bit of a lull in the middle of April. Thanks to a significant spike over the last 30 days, this play is 25-15-2 this season. During that 30-day span, the play went 16-5-1, which is a success rate above 70%.
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Technically, both WSH-CWS games fit this system, but different elements are at play with the second game of a doubleheader. With Carlos Rodon on the mound for the Yankees, I’m more interested in that matchup anyway.
The total for NYY-MIN is set at 8.5. In half of Rodon’s starts this season, the game total has gone under that number. Chris Paddack has also been very effective for Minnesota. Outside of a brutal outing vs. Baltimore, he has helped the Twins win six of his seven starts. Four of those starts have come at home, and three of those four games resulted in a game total under 8.5.
SYSTEM PICK FOR MAY 14
NYY-MIN under 8.5 -110
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
