The New Jersey Devils need to make changes. GM Tom Fitzgerald hinted at such a plan going into a crucial offseason. The Devils underperformed in 2023-24 and missed the playoffs. New Jersey will now start by hiring a new head coach before Fitz can set his sights on retooling the roster. One such rumor that is making the rounds is Ottawa Senators captain Brady Tkachuk being made available via trade. The Devils were mentioned as a potential landing spot for Tkachuk on the Spittin’ Chiclets Podcast recently. But what the members of that podcast failed to realize are the salary cap implications of the Devils adding Tkachuk to the mix.
If we look at New Jersey’s current cap situation, the Devils have a lot of players signed long-term. Timo Meier, Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, Ondrej Palat, Dougie Hamilton, John Marino and Jonas Siegenthaler are all signed through at least the next three seasons (through 2026-27). Six of those players have a salary cap hit of $6 million or greater. And four of those players are signed beyond 2026-27.
The salary cap is going to rise but assuming the Devils don’t move any players, Luke Hughes, Simon Nemec, Dawson Mercer and Alexander Holtz would all need new contracts soon. That could be in the form of long-term deals or bridge deals. Either way, it’s a lot of money on the books and yet to be thrown around. All of this and we haven’t even touched the Devils’ glaring need at goaltender. So while adding Tkachuk would be great, there are other priorities and cap constraints we need to take into account.
Looking at the contracts and roster for the Devils, the most logical player to move would be the 33-year-old Palat. He’s making $6 million per season on a deal that runs through 2026-27. Palat has a no-movement clause at the moment, but that turns into a modified trade list after 2024-25. If the Devils can convince Palat to waive his NMC, that would be ideal. But then you need to find a deal willing to take on his remaining contract, which could be tough without giving up additional assets.
The other path the Devils could take in a Tkachuk trade is dealing a bigger contract. Assuming Jack Hughes is untouchable, that would mean one of Hischier, Bratt or Meier would go back to Ottawa. All three have salary cap hits in the neighborhood of Tkachuk’s $8.2 million. All three have similar value as Tkachuk. Maybe slightly lower but close enough. But involving one of those forwards makes this deal more risky, especially if it’s a captain swap of Hischier for Tkachuk. Chances are it would work out for New Jersey, but Fitzgerald likely doesn’t want to entertain trading any three of those forwards, even if it’s for his cousin.
You’ll likely see a lot of hypothetical deals involving Tkachuk to the Devils that don’t take into account salary cap implications. This isn’t surprising. While the salary cap is expected to go up to $87.6 million from $83.5 million in 2023-24, that isn’t all that impactful when considering the Devils would need to sign Luke Hughes, Nemec, Holtz and Mercer unless traded. Luke is due a new contract before Nemec. Holtz has one more year on his ELC before going to arbitration. Mercer had a down season in 2023-24 but has played three full seasons without injury and broke out in 2022-23 with 56 points (27 goals) in 82 games.
Let’s say we project contracts for those four players and how it would fit long-term. Luke Hughes likely makes around $8 million; Jake Sanderson’s deal is worth $8.050 million and set the young defenseman market for now. Nemec could command more depending on how he plays the next two seasons. Mercer you’re looking at between $5-6 million per season. Matt Boldy of the Wild had a similar 2022-23 and got $7 million per season. Holtz likely goes to arbitration after the 2024-25 season. If Holtz were to break out, he could command a wide range of salaries. Chances are it would be a one-year deal between $2-4 million.
So doing some quick math, the range of salary those four players could command per season is a total of $21 million at the low end and $26 million on the high end. Looking at how much salary the Devils currently have allocated, it’s around $65 million roughly. That’s not taking into consideration the Devils need a starting goaltender. And that would also leave the team with around $22.6 million to fit those four players mentioned above under the cap. Now, the cap will go up again, so that gives the Devils a bit of wiggle room. Also remember New Jersey would be locked into this roster for at least the next few seasons. So if no moves are made, this would be the team Fitz goes forward with to try and win. If things don’t work out, you can always move big contracts but it’s definitely more difficult.
One path the Devils could entertain is adding Tkachuk for 2024-25 and figuring out the cap after the upcoming season. That’s when you’d need to move Nemec or Holtz before they get paid. Luke Hughes isn’t going anywhere given the presence of Jack. You could fit Mercer and Tkachuk’s contract plus a goaltender. Maybe you’d have some additional salary to add a player or two in free agency. So it isn’t crazy to think the Devils can make a Tkachuk trade work for 2024-25 on the cap. But after that, things get tricky. So you’d think Fitz and the Devils would want to be ahead of the cap rather than worrying year-to-year.
What should the Devils do?
If you can shed Palat’s deal, you do it 12 times out of 10. That may not be an option, however. If no one wants Palat or he’s unwilling to waive his NMC, I still think you try and make a Tkachuk trade work no matter what if you’re Fitz. Adding Tkachuk to any form of the Devils core/roster would be a massive boost. Even if you’re subtracting a player like Hischier or Meier or Bratt, Tkachuk adds more intangibles on and off the ice. He’s a leader who plays a more physical game, something the Devils could use more of out there.
Personally, as a Devils fan, I’m fine giving up anyone not named Hughes on the roster in a deal for Tkachuk. The No. 10 pick is also expendable. The draft isn’t that deep and the Devils wouldn’t have any glaring needs if Tkachuk is added and/or players are added via free agency. Signing top guys through free agency isn’t ideal. Getting role players and depth in free agency is fine. So at this point, we’re waiting on the reports legitimizing the Tkachuk rumors and then Fitz can get to work. Either way, we should expect Fitz to be active if names like this pop up and he should be able to revamp the roster to get the Devils back to where they need to be.
