There are 28 teams and 14 games on tonight’s MLB slate. If my very quick and very rough math is correct, that means there’s about 1,000,000 bets this evening that you could make on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Don’t double-check that.
Let’s dive in and find some value.
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Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
Zach Eflin Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+125)
After posting a massive 26.5% figure in 2023, Eflin has seen his strikeout rate fall to just 19.5% across his first eight outings of 2024. His 9.3% swinging strike rate is also the lowest it’s been since 2019. Red flags, to be sure. Still, nothing about Eflin’s pitch mix suggests all that large a shift in approach from last season and he’s managed to strike out at least six opponents in two of his past four outings. I’d expect some normalization is on the horizon and it might begin as soon as Monday night.
Matchup is a key factor with this prop. Few teams have been as susceptible to a swing and miss as the Red Sox in recent weeks, as evidenced by Boston’s 27.4% strikeout rate in May — the second-highest mark in all of baseball. In that same span, the Red Sox rank third in swinging strike rate (13.0%) and 29th in overall contact rate (73.2%). If Eflin can pitch into the sixth inning in this tilt, something he’s done in all but one of his starts in 2024, hitting the over on this prop is very much in the range of outcomes. The fact it’s at plus-money is simply a bonus.
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Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers
Riley Greene Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
The Riley Greene breakout is happening. Coming into Monday’s contest with the Marlins, Greene is sitting in the 97th percentile in barrel rate (18.0%), the 94th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.542) and the 92nd percentile in expected wOBA (.390). In his 137 plate appearances against RHPs in 2024, Greene is slashing .259/.387/.518 with a 156 wRC+. Heck, he’s already hit nine home runs and seems poised to eclipse his previous career-high before the calendars flip to June.
Basically, Greene should be considered to be in an advantageous spot any time he’s in an opposite-hand matchup. That concept is only amplified when he’s facing an underwhelming RHP like Sixto Sanchez. While it’s been nice to see the 25-year-old return to the majors after years of battling injuries, the stuff just isn’t the same. Where Sanchez once averaged 97.6 mph on his fastball as a starter, he’s now clocking in at a much slower pace, even mustering only a 92.5 mph average in his last outing versus Oakland. Sanchez has struggled with LHBs, as well. Left-handed bats have combined to slash .379/.471/.522 with a .450 wOBA so far this season. Woof.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
