Saturday is a bigger day for MLB than Opening Day. It’s Paul Skenes Day. The biggest prospect in decades will take the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday afternoon. Get your popcorn ready and get your bets in.
Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Saturday’s slate of MLB games.
Follow along on Twitter (@Race4thePrize) for updates.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
The Pick: Pirates Money Line (-110)
Let there be hype. Paul Skenes’ debut on Saturday is the biggest since Bryce Harper’s first game. He’s already a legend and hasn’t thrown a single Major League pitch. When was the last time anyone scheduled their day around an MLB game in May? Cubs-Pirates. 4 p.m. ET. Cancel your plans. Put on an eye patch and raise the Jolly Ranger.
Skenes is a superhuman athlete, but that’s not his biggest strength. Skenes was a catcher at Air Force. His coaches believe that he would have been a first-round pick at the position. He’s a pitcher with a catcher’s brain. We’ve never seen anything like this. It’s the child of Nuke LaLoosh and Crash Davis.
What’s the play? All of them. Skenes has struck out 45 batters in 27.1 MiLB innings (42.9%). He struck out 209 in 122.2 innings at LSU in 2023 (1.29 ERA). Major League hitters are different, but at every level so far, the 6’6” flame thrower has put away hitters with ease.
At the moment, the DraftKings Sportsbook appears afraid to post any Skenes props. It’s understandable. It’s also understood that as soon as they drop they will be bet up an out of sight. Check back often, but for now it’s money line only.
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Pick: Padres Money Line (+124)
Baseball is fun again. Paul Skenes is making his debut in the afternoon. The nightcap keeps the good times rolling. Major League’s resident knuckleballer is facing the Dodgers on the West Coast. This could go two ways. The Dodgers put on a show or the knuckler embarrasses America’s billion-dollar team.
The wheels fell off in Waldron’s last start — seven earned runs in three innings. It happens to everyone. It happens to knuckleball pitchers. Sometimes the knuckle doesn’t knuckle. The 30,000-foot view looks bad, but a closer inspection reveals a different picture. There were five batted ball events on the knuckle in his last start. The Diamondbacks collected four hits in seven at-bats against the pitch. All were singles.
The Dodgers present a tough matchup, but this is a knuckleballer. It’s not a normal matchup. All bets are off. The Dodgers’ dominance doesn’t necessarily translate. It didn’t the first time Waldron faced the Dodgers on April 13. He allowed one run and three hits in five innings. And that was before he made improvements with his knuckleball and diverse pitch mix.
Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants
The Pick: Reds Money Line (-115)
The Reds have lost eight games in a row. Their pitching has been terrific. Their bats are dead. They need a spark. Electric Elly De La Cruz is that spark. Seasoned MLB pitchers can neutralize the dynamic superstar with breaking pitches. Mason Black is not that pitcher. He pitched well in Triple-A and earned a call-up. His first start did not go well. He walked three batters and allowed eight hits and five runs in 4.1 innings (5.99 xFIP). There is a very good chance that De La Cruz gets on base and wreaks havoc.
When is the best time to catch a falling knife? When it hits the floor. The Reds have hit the floor. This is the time to buy low on the Reds. There is a general concern with leaning on the Reds’ offense when they leave the favorable confines of Great American Ball Park, but the reality is that this team is better on the road. They’re not a homerun-dependent team. Their 77 wRC+ on the road isn’t much worse than their 81 wRC+ at home. They’re four games under .500 at home but just one game under on the road. The Reds are at their best when power isn’t the factor. The Reds win with hustle. Their 7.3 BsR is the best in baseball. This is a matchup where the Reds should get on base and generate runs.
The final part of the equation is Nick Lodolo. This is the easy part. The Giants are a below-average team against left-handed pitching (96 wRC+, .299 wOBA and .133 ISO). They do not strike out a lot (20.6%), but that number will likely increase in this matchup. Lodolo is striking out 32.2% of batters (3.37 xFIP). He also loves getting away from Cincinnati’s small park. In 12.1 innings on the road, he’s allowed two hits (.145 wOBA), one run (0.71 ERA) and struck out 21 batters. Pitching in San Francisco versus pitching in Cincinnati is a tremendous boost. Adding to that is the fact that the Giants can’t hit at home in the pitcher’s park — 92 wRC+, .287 wOBA and 109 ISO.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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