The regular season has concluded and the first round is in the books, but the NBA DFS season continues at DraftKings. Saturday’s two-game playoff slate starts early at 3:30 p.m. ET. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS research and make some fantasy basketball picks, as we gear up for a full day of playoff basketball.
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Guard
Studs
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, $11,400 — We’ve got a series. It wasn’t looking good after Game 1. The Mavs lost by 22 and Doncic had a knee injury. This came on the heels of a less-than-spectacular first round. Doncic carried an insane 60.6% usage rate in Game 3 vs. the Clippers and a 52,6% usage rate in Game 5. Those should have been 100-point fantasy performances. He scored 41.5 DKFP in Game 3 and 51.5 DKFP in Game 4. Compare those to his stats in the Mavs’ Game 2 win over the Thunder — 63.5 DKFP with a 24.2% usage rate. There will be an 80-DKFP for Doncic in this series and Saturday at home seems like a good place to start.
Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics, $8,900 — We’ve got a series. No one gave the Cavs a chance. No one ever believes in Cleveland. When will they learn? Everyone believes in Boston. Everyone backs Bean Town every season. Everyone gets burned. When will they learn? Here’s an easy lesson. Mitchell is automatic. The automatic matchup-proof match maker is beating the best defenses in the NBA. He’s scored over 50 DKFP in four in a row.
Value
Caris LeVert, Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics, $4,600 — It’s not uncommon for superstars to be neutralized by other superstars in the NBA Playoffs. Games are often decided by the secondary standout. The player that receive less attention receives all of the attention. LeVert stepped up and scored 21 points off the bench in Game 2 — 31.5 DKFP in 27 minutes (6.8x value).
Forward
Studs
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers, $9,300 — It’s put up or shut up time. Honestly, that time past a while ago. Expecting the Celtics to roll through the East without a loss is irrational. Losing at home to the Cavs sans Jarrett Allen is unacceptable. Tatum has not risen to the occasion once again. Regular season Tatum is not enough. The Celtics have failed to win a championship because Tatum is just Tatum. If he ever decides to step up his game when the stakes are high, they’ll get another banner. Game 3 in Cleveland is the perfect moment for Tatum to finally realize the moment. He has the ability. It’s just a matter of desire. A sub 30% usage rate is not it. If Tatum takes over, the Celtics will roll over the Cavs.
Value
PJ Washington, Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, $5,800 — Luka’s bodyguard isn’t just an enforcer. He’s a scorer. Washington scored 29 points in Game 2 and posted 58.75 DKFP for a 10.5x return of value. The knee-jerk reaction is that he won’t do that again. That’s right. He won’t, but 7x is possible and 7x is phenomenal on a small slate. It’s even more incredible for a two-game playoff slate with matchups and actual defense being played. Why can he score 7x? He shoots threes. He hit 7-of-11 from behind the arc in Game 2. They don’t always fall, but the big man always shoots them. Washington has a solid fantasy floor with his role as a big man, but his propensity to jack the three provides upside and makes him an ideal tournament pick at DraftKings.
Tim Hardaway Jr, Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, $3,600 — Every time the game got close and the Thunder cut the lead, Hardaway entered the game and the Mavs built a sizable lead. Hardaway posted a +15 Plus-Minus in his three rotations (18.7 minutes). He’s earned more minutes. It appears that he is back to full health and can handle more minutes. It’s not easy for NBA DFS value picks to duplicate these types of results, but it starts with minutes and usage. Hardaway seems to be on track to get both in Game 3.
Center
Studs
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks, $7,000 — Center is not the strongest position on this slate. Guard and forward demand attention and salary. The popular DFS strategy will be to save salary at center. Holmgren could carry low ownership. He has not exploded in this series, but the opportunity is present. Holmgren played 37 minutes in Game 2. In close contests, he’s not coming off the court. Turnovers and poor shooting suppressed his stats in Game 2. If these metrics return to his baseline, Holmgren can be an excellent return of value based on the peripheral stats he picks up with his heavy allotment of minutes.
Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics, $7,600 — This is the moment. The young big man can become a star. The stage is set. Jarrett Allen is injured. The Celtics’ front court is limited. Mobley recorded double-doubles in Game 1 and Game 2. There could be more in the tank. Cleveland did not lose a home game in the first round. Game 3 could be another big home game for Cleveland.
Value
Daniel Gafford, Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, $5,300 — Minutes aren’t guaranteed for NBA DFS value picks in the playoffs. Coaches are willing to mix up rotations due to matchups every single game. Gafford didn’t see much work in the first round. Against the Thunder, he’s back in the mix. Good luck figuring out Jason Kidd’s game plan, but so far in this series the game plan has been to go to Gafford. He logged 27 minutes in both of the first two games and nearly double-doubled in both. He scored 13 and 16 points with seven and 11 rebounds in the first two games. His Plus-Minus isn’t great, but it’s Jason Kidd. Does he even look at stats?
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $300K Shootaround [$100K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
