Sonny Gray has been electric this season, even against Milwaukee despite taking the L when he saw them back on April 21. He gave up two earned runs on five hits and one walk over 6 1/3 innings. As much as that’s the most any team has scored off of him this season, he also logged a season-high 12 strikeouts vs. the Brewers.
Milwaukee has a 22.7% K rate against right-handed pitching, which is nothing overwhelming. Looking at the strikeout rates Gray has posted game-to-game via the DraftKings Sportsbook’s Stats Hub, the Brewers’ rate may even be ballooned a bit from that outing:
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The Brewers will probably make some adjustments, but Gray is simply too good right now. Ideally, I’d roll with the over on his outs recorded prop, but with the line at 17.5, the odds to the over are -205. Instead, his strikeout prop is the play at 6.5, with -105 odds to the over.
In addition to those game-to-game numbers above, Gray has a 33.9% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters and 32.8% rate against righties. No one can seem to gain an edge against him.
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Moving over to the offenses, here’s a look at how some of Milwaukee and St. Louis’ hitters have performed over their last five games against their hits line for Thursday’s matchup via the Consistency Sheets in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:
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The Cardinals will get a look at Tobias Myers, who has struggled a bit after a strong MLB debut. Notably, he’s given up a pair of home runs in each of his last two outings. All five of the home runs he’s given up in his three MLB starts have come off right-handed hitters, which bodes well for Nolan Arenado.
Through 126 plate appearances, Arenado is hitting .312 against right-handed pitching. He’s only got a .110 ISO, so the power has been limited. But, most of the power he’s displayed against righties has come at home, because his ISO against righties at Busch Stadium is .150. With his total bases odds set at +120 for him to go over 1.5 total bases, Arenado is my favorite bat to back in this game.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
