There’s baseball being played all day on Wednesday, but for the purposes of longevity and my terrible sleeping pattern, we’re going to focus on tonight’s action in this write-up. I apologize for any inconvenience.
We’re 15-7 (+7.3u) on article plays so far this MLB season. Let’s keep the good times going this evening with a couple more bets.
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Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves
Nick Pivetta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+130)
After missing a month due to an elbow issue, Pivetta will be back with the Red Sox on Wednesday night, making his third start of 2024. The 31-year-old’s time in Boston has been inconsistent to say the least, yet if there’s one area where Pivetta’s always thrived, it’s strikeouts. Heck, among the 93 pitchers who have thrown at least 150 innings since the beginning of 2023, Pivetta’s 31.2% strikeout rate trails only Spencer Strider and Tyler Glasnow. That’s some elite company. Specific to this season, the RHP posted an eye-popping 15.5% swinging strike rate in his first two outings before succumbing to injury. There’s no question that Pivetta has amazing stuff.
In terms of strikeout hunting, this is also an exceedingly good matchup. While the Braves are certainly one of the more dangerous lineups in all of baseball, there is a ton of swing-and-miss on this roster. To wit, Atlanta owns the league’s second-highest swinging strike rate (13.2%) and its fourth-highest chase rate (33.6%). How has that manifested itself to actual strikeouts? Look no further than the last two weeks, where the Braves’ 27.1% strikeout rate sits fourth in MLB. I’m not suggesting that Pivetta is going to get through this tilt unscathed, but he should be able to rack up the whiffs.
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds
Under 9 (-102)
Far be it from me to question the offensive potential of a game at Great American Ball Park, yet I just don’t see who is going to score all these runs on Wednesday night. I mean, have you peeked at the Reds’ stats from the past few weeks? To say this team is in a rut in the batter’s box would be a massive understatement. Cincinnati is slashing just .176/.246/.281 with a league-worst 47 wRC+ across the past 14 days. This isn’t exactly a new issue, either. For the season as a whole, the Reds sport MLB’s lowest team batting average (.207). The club’s 80 wRC+ ranks 27th, placing only above the Rockies, the Marlins and the White Sox — also known as the absolute dregs of baseball. Elly De La Cruz has been electric, but no one else is hitting at all.
Guess what? Arizona is struggling with the sticks, too. The Diamondbacks started the season pretty hot, yet have cooled significantly the last two weeks, hitting .214 with a .123 ISO and a 78 wRC+. Eugenio Suarez has continued his decline from the last couple seasons, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is 2-for-37 (.054) with no walks in his last nine games and, most importantly, Corbin Carroll is rocking a microscopic .068 ISO over 150 plate appearances.
At the end of the day, Graham Ashcraft is solid. On the other side, while Jordan Montgomery struggled his last time out against the Dodgers, he’s got enough of a track record where I trust the lefty to be good more often than not. With how these two lineups are currently trending, I’m inclined to believe both have quality outings this evening and keep this contest low scoring.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
