One important thing to note before digging into specific systems: The Systems tool in the DraftKings Stats Hub now allows you to filter systems by team and not solely by grading. Here’s what the different views looks like:
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SYSTEM: NRFI when home team is coming off a loss
Since the start of May, this play has seen a significant spike. In the last seven days specifically, this play is 25-13 (65.79%). It’s still a sub-.500 play on the season, but this hot streak still has room to last.
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Six games fit this system on Tuesday:
- OAK vs. TEX
- CIn vs. ARI
- ATL vs. BOS
- CHC vs. SD
- STL vs. NYM
- COL vs. SF
STL-NYM is my favorite option of the bunch. Miles Mikolas is typically an arm I like to attack, but asking the right-hander to keep it together for the opening frame isn’t a major request. In seven of his 2024 starts, he’s held his opposition scoreless in the opening inning five times. Similarly, Jose Butto has only given up one first-inning run through his first five starts of the season.
As for these offenses, the Cardinals have failed to score a run in 28 of 35 games and the Mets have failed to do so in 26 of 35.
SYSTEM PICK for May 7
NYM-STL NRFI -115
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SYSTEM: Home teams on the moneyline in interleague games
Teams hosting interleague contests have been taking care of business lately. On the season, they’re 78-67 (53.79%). Not an overwhelming number when you consider some heavy favorites fit into this play. Still, seven-day stretch of 21-13 (61.76%) is considerable.
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Five games fit this system on Tuesday:
- PIT vs. LAA
- PHI vs. TOR
- WSH vs. BAL
- ATL vs. BOS
- KC vs. MIL
KC-MIL has my attention. Both starters have been good to begin the season, but Colin Rea’s 4.78 FIP indicates he’s due for some rough days ahead. Seth Lugo is also due for regression given he has a 1.60 ERA and a 3.43 FIP, but he’s also shown great ability to bounce back. Following his lone sub-six-inning outing, in which he gave up four runs, he’s gone seven innings in back-to-back starts for KC.
On top of Lugo’s play, KC’s lineup is in a preferred setting. The Royals rank sixth in OBP and fifth in OPS when facing a right-hander at home.
SYSTEM PICK for May 7
KC -125
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
