Game 1 of the second-round series between the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder will take place Tuesday evening, with the young Thunder holding homecourt advantage and the No. 1 seed in the West over the more experienced Mavericks. Oklahoma City made quick work of the Pelicans in the first round and has had some time off, while Dallas took out the Clippers in six games to finally get a win over its recent playoff rival.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is off the injury report after missing most of the first round for Dallas, while Maxi Kleber is out with a shoulder sprain. Luka Doncic is probable as he battles some knee soreness. Oklahoma City is clean on the injury front.
The Thunder are 3.5-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook with the total set at 218. Oklahoma City is -162 on the moneyline while Dallas is +136.
Mavericks vs. Thunder, 9:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Thunder -3.5
The Mavericks did get some time to breathe after their win over the Clippers but they still come into this contest with a rest disadvantage. Dallas is 10-7 ATS in that category this season. The Thunder, somewhat surprisingly, are 9-9-1 ATS with a rest advantage despite being one of the top teams against the number all season long.
Oklahoma City’s defense in the first round was exceptional, specifically the job Lu Dort did on Brandon Ingram. He’ll likely be tasked with handling Doncic, and the outcome of that matchup could determine the series. For Game 1, I think the Thunder are able to maintain their stellar home record this season and start off the series with a win. Give me Oklahoma City to cover.
Over/Under: Under 218
The first three games in the opening round for Dallas went under the total, but the subsequent three went over. The Mavericks did have lower totals in all six games compared to the Game 1 number Tuesday. The Thunder went over their totals just once in the four-game sweep, with all four totals coming in under this line. Oddly enough, all four regular-season matchups went over this number. I’ll take the current postseason trend for both sides and back the under for Game 1.