The Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks will meet in the second round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs in the Western Conference, with the Thunder hoping to keep building on their impressive season while the Mavericks try to get back to the conference finals. The Thunder swept the Pelicans in the first round, while the Mavericks needed six games to take out the Clippers.
Here’s a look at how the two teams shape up entering the series and our prediction for the matchup. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Thunder vs. Mavericks predictions
Odds to win series: Thunder -115, Mavericks -105
Regular season record: Thunder 57-25, Mavericks 50-32
Head-to-head record: Thunder 3-1
The Thunder were impressive during the entire regular season, building on their surprising run last season to the play-in tournament to capture the top seed in the West. The Mavericks seemed destined for the play-in for most of the season but got hot late in the year to get to 50 wins and earn an automatic playoff berth. The current Dallas team is much better defensively than the one which sluggishly moved through February and the early part of March.
Pick: Thunder in 7 games (+350)
Part of me wants to back the experienced Mavericks, especially with proven playoff performers like Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic. Both guards have been great in Game 7s as well, which makes this an interesting choice. However, we’ve seen youth step up in a big way this year.
The Thunder are just one of the many young teams that made a leap in the 2023-24 season. The difference for Oklahoma City is it has had some time to rest and has a bonafide superstar in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Mavericks just got over a team they’ve recently been unable to take out and now have to run with a young group that is essentially playing with house money. Even as the No. 1 seed, the Thunder weren’t expected to do this much entering the regular season. Anything more than a first-round win is gravy. The same thing can’t be said for Dallas, which expects to contend a title with its backcourt.
Even though the Mavericks have shown they can win the road, I think the Thunder are a deeper team and that depth will create some separation between the squads as the series goes on. Barring an injury to any of the stars, I expect this to be a closely contested series but eventually the Thunder outlast the Mavericks in seven games.