While the fear of jinxing any hot streak is always at the forefront of my mind, it’s a pretty swell time to be reading this article. After a 2-0 performance last Wednesday, we now sit at 13-7 (+5.6u) for the MLB season as a whole.
Let’s try to keep the good times rolling on Monday evening.
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Milwaukee Brewers at Kansas City Royals
Royals ML (-135)
Do you know which team is covering as a home favorite at the highest clip so far this season? I’m assuming you guessed the Royals through context clues and you would be correct. Kansas City has won six of its seven contests under these circumstances in 2024 — an 85.7% mark. In general, the Royals are an impressive 20-15 with the American League’s second-best run differential (+44). We’re only six weeks in, yet I’m starting to feel pretty safe in suggesting that Kansas City is good. I feel even safer in that claim when Cole Ragans is on the mound.
Ragans has picked off right where he left off in 2023, pitching to a 3.44 ERA and a 2.15 FIP over his first seven starts. If not for an inflated .367 opponent BABIP — the second-highest qualified figure in the AL — the left-hander’s surface numbers would be even more stunning. I’d look for Ragans to add another quality start to his résumé on Monday, as the Brewers have struggled immensely with southpaws so far in 2024. To wit, Milwaukee is slashing a putrid .198/.304/.326 within the split with an 85 wRC+. Bryse Wilson isn’t all that daunting a matchup, either. The RHP has been fine as a reliever throughout his career, but he’s been underwhelming as a starter with a 5.26 ERA and a 5.16 FIP. If a team is going to put up some crooked numbers on the scoreboard tonight, it’s going to be the Royals.
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New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals
Mets ML (+100)
This isn’t exactly a matchup between two Cy Young candidates. Sean Manaea and Kyle Gibson have both had their issues to begin 2024. However, if forced to pick between the two, I wouldn’t hesitate in choosing the left-hander.
Walks have certainly been a problem for Manaea, yet he’s been able to register a 3.07 ERA and a 3.60 FIP thanks to his above-average strikeout ability and a 0.31 HR/9 that is among the lowest in all of baseball. Manaea’s also managed to surrender two earned runs or fewer in five of his six outings this season. Conversely, Gibson owns a 5.58 xERA and an opponent barrel rate that ranks in just the 11th percentile of qualified pitchers (11.1%). At 36, he might be, as the kids say, washed.
Handedness is another huge factor in tonight’s tilt leaning towards Manaea and the Mets. To be blunt, the Cardinals simply have not shown any ability to hit left-handed pitching during the first six weeks of the regular season. St. Louis is batting a league-worst .180 within the split with embarrassing marks in both ISO (.112) and wRC+ (67).
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