The 2024 MLB season is just under a month in, but teams are starting to settle into their rhythm. Slow starts are hopefully in the rearview, and our preseason expectations have already been tested.
Heading into the season, Spencer Strider had the best odds to win the 2024 NL CY Young Award. Strider suffered an elbow injury and will miss the remainder of the season. The NL Cy Young race is now wide-open, with plenty of movement already at DraftKings Sportsbook. Philadelphia Phillies starter Ranger Suarez is off to a hot start to his 2024 campaign. Should you capitalize on his momentum and bet he wins the NL Cy Young Award?
The Numbers
Suarez has started seven games so far this season and has tallied a 6-0 record with a 1.72 ERA. He’s posted a 2.1 WAR with a 0.72 WHIP and has struck out 46 batters to just six walks in 47 innings of work. Opposing batters are hitting just .173 against him, with a .212 on-base percentage and a .259 slugging percentage. Suarez’s WAR leads all qualified pitchers in the MLB, narrowly edging out Seattle’s Logan Gilbert and Boston’s Kutter Crawford, who each have a 1.9.
Suarez has +1300 odds to win the NL Cy Young heading into Sunday, May 5. These are the ninth-best odds behind leaders Zack Wheeler (+330), Tyler Glasnow (+400) and Freddy Peralta (+1000). When the season opened, Suarez’s odds of winning the award didn’t rank in the top 27 and were well over +10000, depending on where you looked. Teammates Wheeler (+750) and Aaron Nola (+1800) had better odds than he did.
If Suarez can sustain his performance from April, he will have a good shot at bringing home the hardware. He made five starts, went 5-0 and had a 0.75 ERA for the month. Putting the numbers into context, Suarez did pitch against the Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds and the San Diego Padres. These five teams have a combined 73-96 record, so it isn’t like he dominated the league’s best. Still, allowing three earned runs over 36 innings is impressive. If Philadelphia keeps their current rotation and schedule, the rest of his starts in the month of May will be against the Miami Marlins, Nationals, Rockies and St. Louis Cardinals. If Suarez maintains this clip throughout the month, his odds will be much better this time next month, giving plenty of value to taking the line now.
The Division
The creation of the MLB schedule was recently revised, and a key error was amended. Previously, MLB teams played each divisional opponent 19 times and would not be able to play every other team in the league through the remainder of the games. Now, teams play each of their division rivals 13 times to compensate for the games needed to ensure that every team faces off in at least one series.
Starting pitchers generally play once every five days, so the number of opponents they face in a given season is shortened even further. Still, it can help to look at the division a starter pitches in to see who they could consistently be seeing. Suarez and the Phillies play in the NL East, so they will see the Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, Marlins and Nationals most often this season compared to non-divisional teams. Luckily for Suarez, the Mets, Nationals and Marlins are all under .500 heading into Sunday, May 5, theoretically providing good matchups, barring improvements as the season continues.
Suarez has already faced Atlanta once this year, but it was his first 2024 start back in March. He didn’t factor into the decision and allowed three earned runs on three hits over five innings. Suarez was better against the Nationals, pitching six innings and allowing two earned runs while striking out four. Winning the Cy Young Award will result from consistency throughout the remainder of the season, but if he can pitch well against the division, it would go a long way for his award resume.
The Competition
We can’t act like Suarez is the only pitcher playing well. For one, there are still five months left in the regular season, so any award race is long from over. Second, some players had good enough odds that just pitching to expectations keeps them in the early race.
Wheeler began the season with the second-best odds to win at +850, trailing only Strider. Now, with the Atlanta ace sidelined for the year, Wheeler has the best odds to win and has improved to +330. He has pitched in seven games this season and has tallied a 3-3 record so far with a 1.91 ERA. Wheeler is tied for the second-most strikeouts in the league with 52. He could be the favorite throughout the season if he can get some run support and stay consistent on the mound.
When the season started, the Los Angeles Dodgers had a starting pitcher in the top-5 of odds to win the NL Cy Young Award, and they still do. Rookie Yoshinobu Yamamoto opened the season with +1000 odds to win the award. Now, however, it is his teammate Tyler Glasnow who has risen up the ranks and has +400 odds to win. Affectionally called “Baby Giraffe,” the 6-foot-8 Glasnow is off to a 6-1 start with a 2.70 ERA and league-leading 63 strikeouts. The biggest knock against Glasnow compared to Wheeler is just ERA, with Glasnow having the strikeout edge with his 11.3 K/9, the fifth-best mark in the MLB.
Chicago Cubs starter Shota Imanaga leads the league with a 0.78 ERA and a 5-0 record. He has struck out 35 hitters over 34.2 innings and posted a 1.8 WAR with a 0.75 WHIP. Imanaga has started six games, and the Cubs have won every game that he has started. It’s safe to assume his ERA will rise over the remainder of the season, but as long as he keeps it in check, and can see his strikeout number equally rise, he could be in the conversation for the award come September.
Final Thoughts
There’s so much time left in the season that anything can happen. For now, though, assuming that he stays healthy, Suarez will either keep playing well and his odds will increase, or he will regress and his odds will drop. With the matchups that he is projected to have over the month of May, he’s expected to sustain the momentum that he built through April. With the Phillies lineup supporting him, giving him consistent run support, his chances only improve. This time next month, Suarez’s odds could be much lower than they are now, so this is the time to bet on him to win the NL Cy Young Award.