Update: Harris is available for Orlando, while Allen has been ruled out for Cleveland. The line is Cavaliers -3 and the total comes in at 195. I’ll still take Cleveland as the ATS pick and the over on the total.
The Orlando Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers have gone the distance in their first-round series of the 2024 NBA Playoffs with Game 7 set to tip Sunday at 1 p.m. ET from Cleveland. The home team has won every game in this series, but the Magic came close to grabbing Game 5 in Cleveland and the Cavaliers had a lead late in Game 6 before losing steam late.
Gary Harris is listed as questionable for Orlando after missing Game 6 due to a hamstring issue. Jarrett Allen, Cleveland’s starting center, is also listed as questionable and has not played in the last two games.
The Cavaliers are 3.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook with the total set at 194.5. Cleveland is -162 on the moneyline while Orlando is +136.
Magic vs. Cavaliers, 1 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Cavaliers -3.5
After covering in the first two games of the series, the Cavaliers have not covered in the ensuing four. However, they have won every home game and are the more experienced team. Orlando as a franchise hasn’t played in a Game 7 since 2009 and this young roster has no gauge on the pressure this type of environment can have, especially on the road. Luckily for the Magic, there’s plenty of big-game experience from the college ranks for these guys. Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs both played in the Final Four, and Franz Wagner has also been a part of some big NCAA tournament games. I don’t think this atmosphere will phase Orlando as much as one might expect.
Donovan Mitchell went for 50 points in a losing effort in Game 6, and will surely need more support in Game 7. Rotation players tend to play better at home, so the Cavaliers will hope that is the case in this contest. If Allen is able to suit up, that’ll further help Cleveland’s cause. I expect this to be a close contest but I’ll take the Cavaliers to eventually separate themselves and clinch the series.
Over/Under: Over 194.5
These teams are 2-4 to the over in the series but the totals just keep going lower to the point where taking the under seems insane. If this was the total in each game, these teams would’ve gone over four times. Cleveland hasn’t really been able to clamp down on Orlando defensively since the first two games, and I think the Magic won’t be completely phased by the pressure of Game 7. I think both offenses do enough to surpass this low total.