Update: Murray, who was expected to play, is officially available for the Nuggets in Game 1. The lines haven’t moved much over the course of the day and I already accounted for Murray being in when making predictions, so I’ll stick with Minnesota as the ATS pick and the under on the total. The total has moved up to 209.5 after starting the day at 208.5.
The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets will start the second round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs with Game 1 of this series taking place in the Mile High City Saturday evening. The Timberwolves are here after sweeping the Suns, while the Nuggets took five games to down the Lakers in a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Finals. This series is a rematch of the first round a year ago, where the Nuggets took out the Timberwolves 4-1. These teams split their four meetings in the regular season this year.
Minnesota is clean on the injury front. The Nuggets have listed Jamal Murray as questionable with a calf injury but he should be good to go after playing all five games against Los Angeles.
The Nuggets are 4.5-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook with the total set at 208.5. Denver is -185 on the moneyline while Minnesota is +154.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets, 7 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Timberwolves +4.5
Minnesota is 10-9 ATS as a road underdog, while Denver is 21-21-1 ATS as a home favorite. The Nuggets have been exceptional at home straight up with a 33-8 record but have had some trouble covering the spread. The Timberwolves would’ve covered this line in three of the four regular season meetings, and have actually been one of the few teams to beat Denver in the Mile High City.
While I don’t believe the Nuggets will be caught off guard since they’ve had some time to prepare, it did look like they were going through the motions a bit against LA. Murray’s shooting struggles need to be fixed, although Nikola Jokic and Michael Porter Jr. have picked up the slack. I think Denver ends up winning this game but Anthony Edwards helps Minnesota cover.
Over/Under: Under 208.5
Two of the regular season games went over this line while two went under. The Timberwolves went over their totals three times in four games against the Suns, while the Nuggets have four unders in their series against the Lakers. Denver home unders have been a hit this season, with the Nuggets going 19-25 to the over at Ball Arena. I think both teams slow this game down and I’ll take the under to hit Saturday evening.