It’s Star Wars Day around baseball. Major League and Minor League stadiums will do anything to sell tickets. The MLB Best Bets article has been cashing tickets. The hot MLB run continued last weekend with a perfect Saturday. The Money Line bet, Run Line bet and Home Run Prop each hit. Let’s keep it going, and “May the Fourth be with you.”
Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Saturday’s slate of MLB games.
Follow along on Twitter (@Race4thePrize) for updates.
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Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals
The Pick: Dane Dunning Alternate Strikeouts Thrown 5+ (+125)
Dane Dunning has a significant weakness. He allows too many home runs. That weakness is mitigated at Kaufman Stadium. It’s one of the least home run friendly parks in baseball. Further boosting Dunning’s potential is that the Royals have a middle-of-the-road offense. Other than balls flying over walls, Dunning has been a solid arm for the Rangers in 2024 (3.77 xFIP, 28.9% K-Rate and 13.3% Swinging Strike Rate). Solid arm might be an understatement. He’s top 5 in strikeouts in the AL.
His position near the top of the strikeouts leaderboard was boosted by his last start. Dunning struck out 10 Reds in 5.1 innings. They chased 46.2% of Dunning’s pitches and swung and missed on 23.2% of his pitches. His cutter was elite and he leaned on the pitch. His position with the Rangers depends on this pitch. Max Scherzer should be returning to the rotation soon. Dunning is the only starter with options. A solid outing won’t save him. Dunning has to force the Rangers’ hand. He needs another elite outing to keep a locker in Arlington. A trip to Kansas City is an opportunity for Dunning to fire away, aim for K’s without the worry of surrendering home runs.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies
The Pick: Jared Jones To Record a Win (+110)
The Rockies do not travel well. They cannot hit outside of Coors Field. On the road, they’ve posted an 82 wRC+, .285 wOBA, .114 ISO and 27.4% K-Rate. They also struggle with right-handed pitching. Their splits are just as bad — 78 wRC+, .301 wOBA, .128 ISO and 27.7% K-Rate. Without a doubt, the Rockies are the worst offense on Saturday’s MLB betting card.
Rookie Jared Jones came into the season as the No. 56 prospect in MLB. The 2020 second-round pick cruised through the Minors and transitioned to the Majors with ease. He is striking out 31.8% of batters and walking 3.8%. The young power arm has an elite fastball and slider. His changeup and curveball are above average and are particularly effective against left-handed batters. The Rockies do not stand a chance. It’s going to be a long afternoon for the Rockies.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies
The Pick: Pirates -1.5 (+105)
You only need one screen. The Rockies vs. Pirates is the game of the week. Not for traditional MLB fans, but the betting community has their eyes on this one. That’s good because the Kentucky Derby or the WWE’s Backlash PPV could be occupying your other screens. The second bet from this game is to target Austin Gomber. One would assume that Gomber would be better on the road. That’s not the case. His FIP is 4.82 on the road and it’s 4.67 at home during his six MLB seasons (most of his innings have been with the Colorado Rockies). This season the split is worse — 6.54 FIP. It’s a small sample size of two games. There was a touch matchup with the Phillies (top-10 team vs. right-handed pitching), but the other matchup was with Arizona — 25th in wRC+ and they had zero issues getting to Gomber.
Pittsburgh is the worst team in baseball vs. RHP — 77 wRC+, .280 wOBA and .090 ISO. Targeting their offense as a whole is not an appealing proposition. Their lineup does feature individual options. Rowdy Tellez has a cool .060 ISO and .258 wOBA. This hardly seems like a profitable wager. That’s what makes it very profitable if it hits. But how can it hit if he can’t hit. He can. It just hasn’t worked out this season, but it’s turning around. Tellez has a 46.8% HardHit%. Over the last three weeks, he’s pounded 17 HardHits (54.8% HardHit%) with a 17.8° Launch Angle. The lefty’s career ISO vs. right-handed pitchers is .224. If Tellez isn’t a bomber against Gomber, he’ll have a good chance against one of the worst bullpens in baseball (4.42 xFIP). As of Saturday morning, the books won’t post Tellez Props. Are they scared or are they indifferent? That being the case, the pivot is another Pirate. Oneil Cruz is heating up and homered on Friday night. However, the left-handed batter is also left off the prop board. That’s strange and frustrating. However, their absence reveals that the book is worried about an offensive explosion from Pittsburgh. Lay the runs.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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