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Pick on the Total for Red Sox-Twins on May 3

Pick on the Total for Red Sox-Twins on May 3

Published:

By: Greg Peterson

The Boston Red Sox enter their road series with the Minnesota Twins with a league-best 2.03 ERA and will look to keep it going on Friday with Tanner Houck on the mound.

Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins (-115, 8.5)

Houck has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his six starts this season, posting a 1.60 ERA with his 1.99 fielding independent being the best in the American League among qualifying pitchers.

The opposing Twins offense has had a difficult time scoring at home, ranking 21st among MLB teams with 3.75 runs per game at home.

Twins starter Chris Paddack will look to make the lineup’s run production stretch further as he enters with his fielding independent of 4.83 being lower than his 5.88 ERA.

Paddack’s command has still been solid with just 2.1 walks per nine innings allowed, but his 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed has been the issue with his struggles being exclusively on the road. Paddack has a 1.54 ERA with one home run allowed in 11 2/3 innings at home in 2024 compared to a 9.42 ERA on the road with four home runs in 14 1/3 innings.

Both teams support their starting pitchers with reliable bullpens as well with the Red Sox’s 3.38 ERA ranking eighth in the league and the Twins’ 2.68 bullpen ERA ranking fifth.

With Minnesota’s ERA falling from 4.28 on the road to a 3.42 ERA at home, Friday’s series opener sets up to be a pitchers duel.

The Play: Red Sox vs. Twins Under 8.5 Runs

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