Guardians vs. Astros Bets: How to approach player props from Cleveland-Houston on May 2

Thursday’s series finale in Houston doesn’t feature two pitchers who are exactly in spectacular form to start the season.

Logan Allen had one gem to start April, yet he enters this outing sporting a 5.46 ERA and 5.12 FIP. As for Spencer Arrighetti, his 3.79 FIP indicates his ERA is due to dip. Still, he’s walked seven and hit one batter over 10 2/3 innings while giving up 18 hits. And while he’s averaged a strikeout per inning in each outing, he’s facing a Cleveland lineup that doesn’t strike out much against right-handed pitching

Here’s a look at these two starters’ handedness splits following the first full month of the 2024 season via their respective player pages in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:

LOGAN ALLEN

SPENCER ARRIGHETTI

Speaking of strikeouts, Arrighetti’s line smells funny at 4.5.

He’s gone over this number in back-to-back outings. So, why lower the bar so much? Probably because the Guardians have struck out in just 164 of their 847 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season — that’s not even 20% of their plate appearances.

Arrighetti is coming off a seven-strikeout performance vs. the Cubs, which makes the over a compelling play, especially at plus money. But look at what happened to Justin Verlander. He punched out seven over 4 1/3 in Chicago, but then he logged two K’s over seven frames vs. the Guardians. So, I like Arrighetti under 4.5 strikeouts at -130.

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*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.

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As for the hitters in this game, here’s a look at how some of them have performed over their last five games against their hits line for Thursday’s matchup via the Consistency Sheets in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:

Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez have been pulverizing left-handed pitching. Both are hitting .341 against lefties, but Tucker has the edge in overall production (1.147 OPS vs. Alvarez’s .979). Both have a total bases line of 1.5, but Tucker has +105 odds while Alvarez is at -115. Alvarez is due, but Tucker has been cooking. A case could be made for either, but I’m riding with the hot hand and slightly longer odds with Tucker over 1.5 total bases.

Same Game Parlaying those two together to each log 2+ total bases provides +300 odds. Surprisingly, Same Game Parlaying them each get a hit provides +100 odds. A third name to add to the hits Same Game Parlay would be Steven Kwan, who brings the play to +150. He doesn’t move the needle much as the favorite to log a hit in this game, but there’s a reason for that — he’s hitting .344 against righties this season.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.