The Miami Heat will attempt to avoid elimination when they visit the Boston Celtics Wednesday evening in Game 5 of this first-round series in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. The Celtics split the first two games with Miami in Boston, but stormed back on the road to set up this opportunity to close things out. Each game in this series has had a double-digit margin for the victor.
Miami’s injury situation gets worse, as Jaime Jaquez Jr. has been ruled out with a hip issue. He joins Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier and Josh Richardson on the inactive list. Duncan Robinson and Haywood Highsmith are available. For the Celtics, Kristaps Porzingis is out with a calf strain he suffered in Game 4.
The Celtics are 14-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook with the total set at 200. Boston is -1100 on the moneyline while Miami is +700.
Heat vs. Celtics, 7:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Celtics -14
The Heat have already lost some significant contributors but Jaquez Jr. going down just puts an even bigger dent into their rotation. The Celtics have won by at least 14 points in every instance they’ve taken a game, and I think they’ll be able to keep up that pace behind their home crowd even with Porzingis down. Boston is 33-29-4 ATS after a win on the season while Miami is 20-19 ATS after a loss.
A double-digit spread is still hard to cover, so a hot shooting game from the Heat could help them at least put up a respectable showing. The Celtics may have let their guard down after Game 1 and that led to the letdown in Game 2 but they’ve been great offensively the entire series. I think they close things out in style in Game 5.
Over/Under: Over 200
Two of the four games in this series have gone over this number, while Game 4 finished at exactly 200. As mentioned above, I’m expecting another blowout and that typically means a game goes under its total. However, this number is too low to back with how good Boston’s offense has been over the course of the series. I think Miami does just enough to get this total over 200.