The PGA TOUR heads back to Texas this week for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. TPC Craig Ranch will be the host course, and measures as a 7,414-yard par 71, featuring Bentgrass greens.
This field is not as strong as we have seen recently, but still features the likes of Jordan Spieth, Will Zalatoris, Sungjae Im and defending-champ, Jason Day.
Below I have outlined my two favorite bets for the week.
Tom Kim to win (+2800)
Kim has already won three times on the PGA TOUR at the ripe young age of 21, and all of those three wins came at events like the Byron Nelson this week — birdie-fests. Kim has not started 2024 off that strong, but he has been rounding into form of late. He closed the Masters with a final-round 66 en route to a T30 finish, before parlaying that into a T18 in his last start at the RBC Heritage.
It’s been his iron play that’s carried him during this stretch, as Kim gained 8.2 strokes with his irons at Augusta and Harbour Town combined. He also caught fire with the flat stick at the Heritage as well, gaining 4.6 strokes putting for the week. He will now return to a course in TPC Craig Ranch where he’s finished T17 and T34 in two starts, while averaging 1.04 strokes ball-striking per round.
Kim has yet to post a top-10 this season, but his game looks pretty close to erupting, and at a course that requires good iron play and putting, he’s absolutely worth chancing at 28/1 in this very subpar field.
Seamus Power to win (+5500)
Power is one of a select few in the field this week who have played this event each of the three times it’s been held at TPC Craig Ranch, and his finishes in those starts read: T9, T17, T19. Across those three starts, the Irishman ranks seventh in this field in SG: Total, and 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Power is also coming off his best finish of the season at the RBC Heritage two weeks back, where he finished T12 and gained 3.2 strokes on approach. Power is no stranger to the winner’s circle, as he’s a two-time PGA TOUR champion, with has last victory coming at the 2022 Bermuda Championship.
When you factor in recent form, rolling stats and course history, Power presents a pretty nice profile for someone who’s sitting at 55/1.
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