I only wrote one Best Bets column last week, but it was a good one, as we went 2-0 (+1.9u) on article plays. For the season as a whole, that brings us to 10-6 (+3.5u). Not too shabby.
Let’s try and end April on a strong note and find a few more winners for tonight’s MLB slate.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25263747/IMG_9722.jpeg)
Bet at a top rated Sportsbook!
View the latest odds and bet online legally at a top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!*
*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angels
Cristopher Sanchez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Luck hasn’t really been on Sanchez’s side to begin 2024, so don’t be blinded by his 1-3 record, the left-hander has actually been quite good for the Phillies. To wit, Sanchez is maintaining a 2.96 ERA and a 2.23 FIP across 24.1 innings of work. An ERA that low is always welcome, especially when burdened with an unsustainably high opponent BABIP (.352) and a ridiculously low strand rate (63.9%). The point is this: Sanchez passes both the eye test and the numbers test. He also strikes out a ton of batters.
Sanchez comes into Monday’s tilt with the Angels having struck out 28 opponents in his 24.1 innings. That’s an average of 10.4 strikeouts per nine — the 22nd-highest mark of any pitcher with at least 20 innings thrown so far this season. In fact, it’s more strikeouts per nine innings than Dylan Cease, Tarik Skubal or Zac Gallen are currently producing. A huge reason Sanchez is able to rack up the whiffs is his ability to induce swings on pitches outside the strike zone. Since the beginning of 2023, Sanchez owns a 36.9% chase rate, which is the ninth-highest figure in baseball among pitchers with 100 innings in that span. With Los Angeles sporting a massive 29.8% strikeout rate over its last six games, I like Sanchez’s chances of adding to his elite strikeout totals this evening.
Refine your research with the DraftKings Sportsbook’s Stats Hub!
From Consistency Sheets and Matchup Tools to System Tools and Player Splits, the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats hub features tools to help with your betting research!
Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers
Rays ML (-108)
Look, we all know what happened this weekend with the Rays. They got swept in a three-game series by a White Sox squad that entered Friday with only three wins total. It was unexpected and, admittedly, hilarious. Still, that all took place in the past and it shouldn’t cloud the fact that there’s value with Tampa Bay on Monday evening.
Let’s start with Ryan Pepiot, who appears to be well on his way to becoming the next success story in the Rays’ extensive trade history. Pepiot had a clunker against the Rangers to begin his 2024 campaign. Since, he’s registered a 2.35 ERA and a 32.6% strikeout rate in four appearances. Pepiot is the rare pitching prospect to have now spent time in Tampa Bay and in the Dodgers’ pitching factory. To say I trust both those organizations to churn out above-average MLB arms would be an understatement, so Pepiot seems to be in good hands and on an amazing trajectory.
On the other side of this pitching matchup is Bryse Wilson. Let’s just say he’s not as highly regarded as Pepiot. Wilson’s been forced out of the bullpen and into the Brewers’ rotation by injury and the results have been predictably underwhelming. In his 45 career starts, Wilson owns an inflated 5.37 ERA — a figure almost two full runs higher than his mark as a reliever. The Rays’ lineup could really use some reinforcements and Josh Lowe’s setback this weekend was a bummer. However, I do believe Tampa has enough firepower to make it a long night for Wilson and open this series with a victory.
Place your MLB bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
