After the team-based Zurich Classic, the PGA TOUR season continues this week with the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. For the fourth year in a row, TPC Craig Ranch (par 71, 7,414 yards, bentgrass greens) in McKinney, Texas, will be hosting the Byron Nelson. Finishing at -23, Jason Day won this event by one stroke last year, which broke a five-year drought without a win for the veteran. The Byron Nelson features a full field of 156 golfers and there will be a standard top-65 and ties cut following the first two rounds.
TPC Craig Ranch is a scorable par 71 that features large greens, wide fairways, 83 bunkers and water in play on 13 holes. Despite the large number of hazards, TPC Craig Ranch is one of the easiest courses on the PGA TOUR. Ever since this venue became the host of the Byron Nelson in 2021, all three of the winners at TPC Craig Ranch have shot -23 or better and the cutline has been -3 or lower for every edition of this tournament. Any length of player can contend at TPC Craig Ranch, and succeeding at this track comes down to having an excellent showing with your irons as a par-four scorer—all three of the victors at this Texas venue finishWS the event top-10 in both SG: Approach and par-four efficiency. Six of the 11 par fours at this par 71 land between 450-500 yards and seeking out golfers who thrive on this length of hole is a smart strategy. During Day’s win at TPC Craig Ranch a year ago, he finished the tournament fifth in efficiency on the 450-500-yard par fours of this par 71.
Below, I have featured four of my favorite DraftKings value plays for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, that all cost less than $7.5K.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $250K DRIVE THE GREEN [$50K TO 1ST]
Taylor Pendrith ($7,400) – Pendrith is in encouraging form and should produce a quality finish in his first attempt at TPC Craig Ranch this week. After carding a T11 at the Corales Puntacana Champoinship—which marked his best solo finish of the season—Pendrith kept his foot on the gas at the Zurich Classic this past week, finishing T11th with Corey Conners as his partner. As an individual, Pendrith has finished T33rd or better in two of his last three solo starts, while collectivity gaining strokes with his irons and putter during both these finishes.
Pendrith ranks 17th in SGP this season and his elite putter gives him top-20 upside at this birdie fest.
C.T. Pan ($7,300) – Pan contended for a win in his first start at TPC Craig Ranch last season, finishing T4th, while leading the field with four eagles. Furthermore, during the final round of this event, the 32-year-old carded 9-under 62 at TPC Craig Ranch, marking the lowest score of his career on the PGA TOUR. Pan now returns to McKinney this week as the maker of five straight solo cuts, with the highlight of this run being a T3 at the Mexico Open. Plus, he finished T28th at the Zurich Classic with Kevin Yu as his partner last week.
Pan has gained strokes on approach in four of his last solo five starts and is a must-have value play at this low salary.
Nate Lashley ($7,300) – Lashley is always a sharp target when we are anticipating very low scoring. The veteran won the 2019 Rocket Mortgage Classic at -25 and more importantly, has finished T17th and T25th at the last two Byron Nelsons. In addition to his compelling resume at TPC Craig Ranch, Lashley is in great form. The 41-year-old finished T38 at the Zurich Classic with Rafael Campos as his teammate last week. As an individual, Lashley has made three of his last four cuts, including a pair of top-25 finishes.
Lashley ranks 16th in 450-500-yard par-four efficiency when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds and has the potential for his third career top-25 finish at TPC Craig Ranch.
Ryan Palmer ($7,100) – Palmer loves teeing it up at TPC Craig Ranch and the Texas native has a ton of merit at this low price tag. Palmer has advanced to the weekend at all three of the Byron Nelson’s played at TPC Craig Ranch, including a T5 in 2022 and a T8 last season. Overall, when we compare this field’s histories at TPC Craig Ranch, Palmer impressively ranks fifth in total strokes gained.
As for his current form, Palmer has made four of his last six cuts as an individual and is coming off a T19 at the Zurich Classic last week while playing alongside Zach Johnson. Palmer is far too cheap for his chances of making the cut this week and likely won’t come with much ownership.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $250K DRIVE THE GREEN [$50K TO 1ST]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
