The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat square off in Game 4 Monday evening with the No. 1 seed looking to grab a 3-1 lead while the home side attempts to hold serve and send the series back to the Northeast tied at 2-2. The Celtics won Game 4 104-84 behind stellar three-point shooting, which seems to be the key to victory in this series.
Boston remains clean on the injury report. Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier and Josh Richardson are out for Miami, while Delon Wright is probable. Duncan Robinson, Kevin Love and Haywood Highsmith are all available for the Heat.
The Celtics are 10.5-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total coming in at 203.5. Boston is -520 on the moneyline while Miami is +390.
Celtics vs. Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Heat +10.5
Because Boston’s spreads tend to be higher, its ATS records might not seem too great. However, the Celtics are still 32-29-4 ATS after a win and got homecourt advantage back in the series after a stunning defeat in Game 2. The Heat are 20-18 ATS after a loss and will be desperate to avoid a 3-1 hole. The one problem for Miami is its porous record as a home underdog. It is 1-10 ATS in that category, which is only compounded by the loss of Butler.
Despite this trend, I’ll back the Heat to at least keep things close in Game 4. Miami can’t afford to go down 3-1 and I don’t know that willpower is enough to top this Celtics squad, but it’ll be enough to cover tonight.
Over/Under: Over 203.5
Both games in Boston went over this number, while the contest in Miami went under. I do think the shooting percentages should normalize a bit for the Heat, who shot 32% from deep in Games 1 and 3 but hit 53.5% of their triples in Game 2. The Celtics have topped 100 points per game in each contest and should maintain their offensive output. I think Miami plays better in this contest and that pushes this total over.