Update: Doncic is officially in for Dallas, while Hardaway Jr. is out. The line has gone up to Mavericks -7 and the total sits at 209.5 now. I still like the Clippers as the ATS pick and the under on the total, although LA could completely collapse here if the players did not know about Leonard’s status ahead of time.
Update: Leonard has been ruled out for the Clippers, as his knee issues continue to pop at the worst times. The original line appeared to build in Leonard being out, as the spread has only moved slightly to Mavericks -6.5. We’ll wait for Doncic’s official status before making updated picks.
The Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks continue their first-round series in the 2024 NBA Playoffs Sunday afternoon with Game 4. The Mavericks hold a 2-1 lead in the series after an impressive showing in Game 3 and will look to set up a chance to close things out in Game 5, while the Clippers attempt to reclaim homecourt advantage and go back to LA tied 2-2.
Kawhi Leonard is officially listed as questionable but is expected to play. Leonard continues to be bothered by knee soreness and only logged 25 minutes in Game 3. Luka Doncic is listed as questionable for Dallas with a knee issue of his own, although he played through the problem in Game 3 and came one assist shy of a triple-double. Tim Hardaway Jr. is doubtful for the Mavericks while Olivier-Maxence Prosper is out.
The Mavericks are 6-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook with the total coming in at 209. Dallas is -230 on the moneyline while Los Angeles is +190.
Clippers vs. Mavericks, 3:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Clippers +6
The Clippers are 13-19 ATS after a loss, showing they tend to let bad habits linger a bit. That’s a problem in a playoff series where the games come quickly, Meanwhile, the Mavericks are 29-22 ATS after a win. Despite Dallas being just 22-20 ATS at home, this team is trending in the right direction at the perfect time.
Leonard’s status is worth monitoring. I do believe he will play through the knee pain, but will he be effective? The Clippers should get more from Paul George in this contest and I do think they’ll ultimately be able to cover in a desperate attempt to avoid going down 3-1 in the series.
Over/Under: Under 209
These teams combined for more than 200 points in Game 1 but have fallen under this mark in Games 2 and 3. All three contests so far have gone under this particular line. The Clippers trend to the under on the road and the Mavericks trend to the under at home, so I’m liking the under to hit once again Sunday afternoon.
