Almost every team is in action tonight. Let’s get into what I like on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Seattle Mariners
The Pick: Game Total over 7.5 runs -118
It’s another edition of “Zac Gallen on the road!”
If you haven’t been made aware, the home/road splits for Gallen, even dating back to last season, are wild. I mean, take a look yourself of his numbers on the road and at home since 2023
Home: 119 IP, 2.19 ERA, 2.37 FIP, .259 wOBA, .222 BA, 10.3 K/9, 1.9 BB/9
Road: 118 IP, 4.65 ERA, 4.04 FIP, .322 wOBA, .258 BA, 8.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9
It almost looks like two different pitchers. He’s made two road starts this season against the Giants and Rockies and allowed eight runs on 17 hits through 10 innings of work. So, with this in mind, it’s hard to not like the Mariners offense here tonight. The Mariners team total is currently set at 3.5 runs at +100, which I also like the over on. I feel like we’re still giving too much respect to Gallen, when he’s clearly having issues away from Arizona.
On the other side we have Emerson Hancock for Seattle. He’s one of Seattle’s top prospects but he’s struggling to find his form in the majors. His 6.10 ERA is accompanied by a xERA of 5.32. He was averaging almost a strikeout per inning down in the minors but only had a 4.5 K/9 through four starts. Because of all this added contact, he’s seen his hard-hit rate allowed sit at 43% of the year. This is not a lineup to take lightly and the Diamondbacks have a lot of pop against righties.
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
The Pick: Washington Nationals moneyline +110
The Marlins announced early this morning that scheduled starter Jesus Luzardo would be scratched due to the dreaded elbow soreness. In a corresponding move, they recalled reliever Anthony Maldonado, who will start this game. Essentially, it’s a bullpen game for the Marlins. Yet, the Nationals are still underdogs? Now, granted, neither team is a barn burner on offense, but cmon. Trevor Williams has been great sporting a 2.91 ERA with a 3.09 xERA and a 2.31 FIP. It’s been an easy schedule thus far against the Astros, Athletics, Giants and Pirates but the Marlins aren’t a good offense either. They’re averaging just 3.3 runs per game and are just 2-11 at home! Whomever comes in after Maldonado isn’t going to be much of an upgrade either, as the bullpen has combined for a 4.73 ERA, a 4.10 FIP, an 8.8 K/9 and a 4.5 BB/9. It’s crazy to me that the Marlins are still the favorites.
San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pick: Giants Team Total over 4.5 runs +105
The Giants offense has been cookin’ lately. Over the last five games, they’ve averaged 4.4 runs per game against the Diamondbacks and Mets. Tonight, they draw a very favorable matchup against Quinn Priester, who has not pitched well in the majors. In 11 appearances, he’s been tagged with a 7.79 ERA, a 7.15 FIP, just a 6.3 K/9 and a 4.6 BB/9. Both sides of the plate have hit him hard but lefties have been his biggest issue. The Giants will likely have three of their first four hitters hit from that side of the plate and five in the lineup overall. This should be a short outing for Priester, who if he’s out early, has likely allowed the Giants to either come close or go over this team total already.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
