In what should be the least surprising move of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears selected USC QB Caleb Williams with the first overall pick on Thursday night. It’s been a wild ride to get to this point but nobody truly doubted Williams would go No. 1 to the Bears. This coming after Chicago decided to deal QB Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers earlier in the offseason. That cleared the way for the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner to become the next franchise QB in Chicago, a place where those types of players don’t frequent.
If Williams can’t come in and save the franchise from itself, then no one can.
Say what you want about Caleb Williams but he’s as sure-fire a QB prospect as we’ve seen since 2012 when the Colts selected Andrew Luck. Sure, Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow were pretty strong first overall picks at QB but Williams had been being touted with this selection for quite some time. There were some question marks after USC’s most recent season, when the team began the season at No. 6 in the country. The Trojans would win their first six games before losing five of six to finish the season 7-5. Williams would skip a meaningless bowl game win over Louisville.
Williams won the 2023 Heisman Trophy after throwing for 4,537 yards with 42 touchdowns and five INTs while rushing for nearly 400 yards and 10 TDs. Expectations were high for Williams going into his junior year, expected to go to the NFL Draft after. USC underperformed but it was mostly because of coaching and a poor defense. Williams played in 12 games in 2023 and finished with 30 TDs to five INTs with a 170.1 passer rating, higher than when he won the Heisman. While the Trojans failed to live up to expectations, you can argue Williams was on par with what we expected.
So now that the Bears have their franchise QB in Williams, this has to mean the franchise will turn things around, right?
It may not happen overnight, but yes, it should result in more wins and hopefully more playoff berths. Williams will be installed into a Bears offense that finished 20th in total yards last season. Chicago started the season 2-7 before bouncing back in November. With the return of Fields from injury, the Bears would go on to win four of their final seven games and finish 7-10, just outside of the playoff picture. This was mostly thanks to an improved defense led by Montez Sweat, Jaylon Johnson and Tremaine Edmunds. Chicago’s defense appears primed to make a big jump in 2024.
The offense looks pretty stacked and ready for the addition of Williams. The USC product will have two veteran weapons in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. D’Andre Swift was brought in to add a steady presence in the backfield with Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. If the Bears opt to add a WR in the first round or later in the draft, that would give Williams plenty to work with as a rookie. He has the type of improvisational style at QB that has been compared to Patrick Mahomes. Williams can make every throw and is great at avoiding pressure to extend the play. That should take pressure off the offensive line.
The big question is will this translate to immediate success in the NFL?
That’s a bit tricky and it’s not because the Bears don’t have the team to make the postseason. It’s the NFC North. If you’re a Bears fan, you’ve been tortured by the Green Bay Packers for most of the past three decades. And just when you think you’re done with Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love comes around and looks like another decade or so of losing to Green Bay. Williams is the type of QB who could develop into one of the best in the NFL. Still, it’s always going to be tough facing the Packers.
Packers aside, the Detroit Lions are the reigning NFC North champs after going 12-5 this past season. Dan Campbell looks like he’s there to stay at head coach and is building what should be a competitive team for the foreseeable future. The Lions have a top offense locked in and should develop the defense into a top unit. The Bears are going to have a lot of trouble dealing with the Packers and Lions during Williams’ tenure. But that’s the NFL. It’s competitive and nothing is easy or handed to you. If there’s any QB who can help Chicago get over that hump, it feels like Williams.
Looking at history, admittedly we’re not too familiar with Bears greats of old, Sid Luckman and Ed Brown. We’re familiar with Jim McMahon and the Mike Ditka Bears of the 1980s. And then of course there’s Jim Harbaugh, Erik Kramer and Rex Grossman, who QB’d the Bears to the Super Bowl in 2006. Jay Cutler came after that and is far and away the best QB in Chicago history statistically, leading the franchise in passing yards and passing TDs. Crazy enough Mitchell Trubisky is third on the Bears QB list in terms of passing yards and completions. Had Fields been given a few more seasons as starter, we likely would have seen him get into the top-5 in that group.
The Bears history at QB has been among the weakest in the NFL. Pending a disaster, Williams should jump up and be the best QB in Chicago franchise history pretty quickly. It could happen before Williams’ rookie contract is up, to be quite honest. All Williams has to do is throw for 3,000 yards in each of his first four seasons and he’d jump Harbaugh for second all-time in passing yards. If Williams hits his stride around his second or third season and begins consistently hitting 4,000 yards per season, it wouldn’t be long before he jumps Cutler at 23,443 passing yards and 154 TD passes.
Really none of those statistics will matter unless Williams helps lead the Bears to the playoffs and ultimately back to the Super Bowl. It wouldn’t be crazy to suggest Chicago makes the playoffs in 2024. That feels like wishful thinking but this roster is talented. If Williams doesn’t miss a beat, the Bears will at least be competitive throughout his tenure. In a perfect world, Williams becomes the best QB in Bears history and gets the franchise out of the basement of the NFL. While it’s been a long tunnel, this should be the end of it where Bears fans finally see the light.
