The attention will be on the NFL Draft that takes place tonight but don’t get it twisted, we still have some MLB to bet. With almost all the games taking place this afternoon, let’s get into what I like on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
The Pick: Mariners moneyline through first five innings -125
Luis Castillo has been better than his surface numbers indicate. His 4.40 ERA looks ugly for him but his 2.86 xERA and a 2.53 FIP tell a much different story. Ironically, he needed to go to Coors Field of all places to spin his best start of the season, tossing 7 shutout innings, allowing just two hits and striking out nine. Between that start and a six inning effort against the Cubs, Castillo has allowed just two earned runs over his last 13 innings. While the Rangers are no easy task, the offense has cooled off lately, as they’re slashing just .229/.294/.418 over the past week. They also could be without star shortstop Corey Seager, who had to exit last night’s game after a hit by pitch on his shin.
Andrew Heaney will be taking the hill for the Rangers. While he’s a bit better than his numbers suggest, they aren’t good either. His 6.35 ERA is accompanied by a 4.54 xERA with a 4.7 BB/9 and just a 7.8 K/9. Per the usual, home runs continue to plague Heaney, allowing 3 through 17 innings in four starts.
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
The Pick: Trevor Larnach over 1.5 H/R/RBI -115
A great spot for the Twins offense with Mike Soroka taking the hill for the putrid White Sox. Soroka has been getting wrecked to the tune of a 7.50 ERA, a 6.86 xERA, just a 4.5 K/9 and a 5.6 BB/9. Nothing redeeming about those numbers at all. Larnach, who just recently returned from a stint on the IL, has been hitting cleanup for the Twins. While Soroka doesn’t have strong numbers against righties or lefties, his numbers against lefties are really bad with a .425 wOBA and a 7.24 FIP. Larnach has only played seven games but has quickly slashed .350/.417/.750 with two home runs, six RBI and five runs scored. In this matchup against one of the worst pitching clubs in the league, I like him to go over 1.5 hits, runs and RBI.
Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros
The Pick: Cubs Team Total over 3.5 runs -120
Taking the over on a team total when playing against the Astros has been an early season play. They’re allowing an average of 5.4 runs per game, thanks to a pitching staff that’s looking lost on the mound. Neither the rotation or the bullpen are providing much, allowing other teams to put up crooked numbers. I expect more of the same today with Justin Verlander taking the mound. This isn’t the dominate Verlander of the past, who is averaging under a strikeout per inning in 28 starts dating back to last season. This is only his second start after a brief appearance on the IL to start the year. We don’t even need the Cubs to hit him hard, as the bullpen will allow that once they come in. If the Cubs can at least scratch a couple of runs across against Verlander, they’ll then face a Astros bullpen that has a 5.14 ERA, a 4.3 BB/9 and a 4.34 FIP.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
