The Major League Baseball season is a month old. The 2024 season stats can be trusted. Most of our questions have been answered. It’s time to take the stats and attack the books. My weekend DK Network MLB Best Bets Article has been on fire. The fire spreads to Wednesday this week. Let’s stay hot.
Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Wednesday’s slate of MLB games.
Follow along on Twitter (@Race4thePrize) for updates.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25263747/IMG_9722.jpeg)
Bet at a top rated Sportsbook!
View the latest odds and bet online legally at a top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!*
*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
New York Mets at San Francisco Giants
The Pick: New York Mets Money Line (+110)
How about some daytime baseball action? The surging and surprising Mets will look to continue their hot streak in San Francisco for a 3:45 p.m. ET first pitch. The surprisingly slumping Blake Snell will take the mound for San Francisco. Snell was lights out last season for San Diego. He can’t turn the lights on with his new team. In three starts, he’s lasted 11.2 innings. His 20.6% K-Rate is fine, but the 18 hits, five walks and 15 earned runs are not.
The Mets have been one of the best teams in MLB vs. LHP. They have a 121 wRC+ (seventh), .344 wOBA (seventh) and 15.3% K-Rate (best). Snell will likely suffer the early hook. The Giants’ problems only get worse from there. San Francisco’s bullpen has 11 Holds (tied at 21st with five teams). It gets worse. The Giants’ relievers have a 5.47 ERA, 8.14 K/9 (21st), 60.4% LOB% (worst) and 41.5% HardHit% (25th).
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers
The Pick: Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-115)
Revenge is a dish best served cold. There’s no better narrative than the revenge narrative. It’s Shakespearean. Tyler Alexander was DFA’d by the Tigers following the 2023 season. He struck out 44 batters in 44 innings and walked six as a reliever, but closed the season on the 60-day IL. The Rays gave Alexander a chance to make a Big League roster. Now, he has the chance to prove to his former team that he’s not a Minor Leaguer.
Alexander is a throwback. He’s of the Greg Maddux mold. His pitches aren’t electric. Spin rate and velocity are not his calling card. He’s a pitch locator. He was the second-best pitcher in MLB in Location+ last season. In his last start, he started to find his groove and worked his magic. The Yankees managed two hits and were held scoreless for 5.1 innings. Alexander manipulated them. They swung at his pitches (85.7% O-Contact%). The Tigers should fare worse. Against left-handed pitching, they have an 83 wRC+, .282 wOBA, .107 ISO and 24.1% K-Rate. Home runs are unlikely, and that’s been Alexander’s weakness this season. Factor in the pitcher’s park and the Rays should come away with the win on Wednesday. NOTE: Tyler Alexander is no longer listed as the starter, but this is the Rays being the Rays. Shawn Armstrong is the “opener,” but Alexander will likely toss the bulk of the innings on Wednesday.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
The Pick: Garrett Crochet Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Life sucks for the Sox. Chicago wasted a magnificent start by Erick Fedde on Tuesday (six innings pitched, one earned run, three hits and 11 strikeouts). Their bullpen gave up five runs in the final three frames. They can’t be trusted. A win bet can’t be trusted. It’s “Fine, I’ll do it myself” mode. Minnesota is a great target, but the White Sox aren’t archers. Crochet — on his own — can hit the bullseye.
Minnesota strikes out 25.0% of the time against left-handed pitching (24th). They walk at a 7.7% rate (19th). They’re even worse against right-handed pitching. Needless to say, they lack plate discipline. Garrett Crochet lacks patience. The lefty likes to put away batters and wastes no time. He throws strikes — 15.3% Swinging Strike Rate, 31.1% Called Strike Rate and a 66.3% First-Pitch Strike Rate. He doesn’t mess around. His K-Rate is 11.9. He was limited in 2023 due to Tommy John’s, but in 2022 he had a 10.8 K/9. Crochet could hit his prop in the third.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @Race4thePrize.
Place your MLB bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
