It all started when Jim Harbaugh, predictably, stumped for the quarterback who had just helped him lead the Michigan Wolverines to the national championship.
“Arm talent, athleticism, it-factor, winning with numbing repetition. Don’t be surprised if, when he’s the No. 1 quarterback off the board. Harbaugh said on The Herd. “When people get a load of J.J. and how he can throw the ball, how he spins it, his athleticism, his intelligence. Talk about ‘it-factor,’ he’s got it. The competitiveness that he has, and they get around him, and they really start digging in, and they start talking to him.”
Harbaugh has been successful at every place he’s coached, something the Los Angeles Chargers hope will translate to his newest gig. The Chargers already have a rising quarterback in Justin Herbert, so they’re unlikely to be interested in McCarthy at No. 5. However, the hype train didn’t stop there.
ESPN football analyst Louis Riddick, who has spent time in NFL front offices making player personnel decisions and is generally respected for his opinions, offered up this take on the Michigan quarterback.
“If the first thing out of your mouth when offering an ‘opinion’ on J.J. McCarthy is about him not being the focal point of their offensive approach at Michigan, you are telling on yourself and your inability, or unwillingness, to project future performance. If you actually studied him, you would see why many in the NFL are very optimistic about his potential.”
NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah put out a mock draft where he had quarterbacks going 1-4, with the Vikings making a trade to grab McCarthy. This came amid reports McCarthy was in consideration to go No. 2 overall to the Commanders, although not everyone was buying those rumors. And finally, there was this piece on CBS News about McCarthy’s draft journey and whether to buy him as a top quarterback prospect.
Let me start by saying Michael Hurley, who offered his opinion on McCarthy in the CBS piece, did acknowledge that being a successful quarterback comes down to more than just statistics. The staunchest McCarthy supporters will point to the likes of Jake Locker and Matt Leinart, who put up excellent numbers in college but failed in the pros. However, I also believe Riddick’s take is bit dismissive of McCarthy’s potential limitations. It is a fact McCarthy wasn’t the focal point of Michigan’s offense. That’s not showing an inability to project his future performance; it’s an observation about his role. That doesn’t mean anything about his NFL future. Also, let’s stop going to the “if you actually watched the tape” excuse NFL personnel throw out to justify their jobs. The draft was, is and will be a crapshoot, especially for quarterbacks. Sometimes you get Tom Brady, sometimes you get EJ Manuel. And you never know which one you’re getting until they lace up the cleats and step out on the field.
So what’s the reality around McCarthy’s rise in the draft and why do so many NFL insiders have him going early in the first round, potentially ahead of a few of the three quarterbacks many consider to be the best in the class?
What McCarthy did well in college
McCarthy went 28-1 as a full-time starter for Michigan over two seasons, so he won a lot of games. Some people will tell you success matters for a quarterback, and it’s certainly not a bad thing to have. Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Deshaun Watson, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud all had success at the college level. So did Leinart, Vince Young, Marcus Mariota, Justin Fields, Mac Jones, JaMarcus Russell and Sam Bradford. Baker Mayfield’s NFL career appears to be experiencing a bit of a resurgence so he still might not be put into one particular camp when it comes to NFL quarterbacks but you get the point. Simply being on a successful team doesn’t mean anything.
Let’s go with a blind resume. Here’s a look at the splits for four quarterbacks in the 2023 college football season from ESPN.com, looking specifically at 3rd down and 6+ yards to go. Many would consider this an obvious passing situation for teams.
QB 1 – 51 attempts, 7 yards per attempt, 58.8 completion %, 3 TD, 0 INT
QB 2 – 35 attempts, 8.9 yards per attempt, 74.3 completion %, 3 TD, 0 INT
QB 3 – 60 attempts, 7.4 yards per attempt, 55 completion %, 4 TD, 0 INT
QB 4 – 59 attempts, 10.6 yards per attempt, 72.9 completion %, 6 TD, 0 INT
QB 4 is McCarthy, who had the second-most attempts, the second-best completion percentage, the best yards per attempt and the most touchdowns. QB 1 is Caleb Williams, QB 2 is Jayden Daniels and QB 3 is Drake Maye, all of whom are projected to go ahead of McCarthy. This is just one metric, but it does poke a hole into the idea McCarthy is unable to make throws when he needs to make them.
Even in his lone loss as a starter to TCU in the College Football Playoff semifinal, McCarthy threw for 343 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions on 34 attempts. He also rushed for 52 yards and a score. He is capable of keeping his team in a game, which is something a quarterback should be able to do regardless of the talent around him.
An important distinction needs to be made regarding McCarthy’s NFL potential. There’s a difference between being a successful quarterback and being a franchise quarterback. A franchise quarterback is inherently a successful one but a successful quarterback might not necessarily be a franchise one. And that’s where I think the conundrum is for many looking at McCarthy.
In the opening scene of the movie “Hitch”, Will Smith is giving advice to men who have successfully landed a date. He says “it is no longer your job to make her like you, it’s your job to not mess it up.” That sums up McCarthy’s role perfectly at Michigan over his two seasons.
According to CFBstats.com, Michigan ranked seventh in scoring defense in 2022 and first in the category in 2023. The Wolverines ranked third in yards per rush in 2022, and actually fell to 52nd in the category in 2023. That does show a bit more reliance on McCarthy as he developed from his first to second season as the starter. He only turned the ball over nine times in two seasons. By comparison, Williams (14), Daniels (11) and Maye (23) turned the ball over more in the same timespan.
McCarthy’s limitations in college
I’m not going to pretend to be some sort of quarterback tape breakdown expert, but I will lean on Chase Daniel, a former Missouri quarterback who was in the Heisman conversation for the last two seasons of his career, led the Tigers to the No. 1 ranking in 2007 and has spent more than a decade in the NFL. He even won a Super Bowl as a backup with the Saints. In his breakdown linked above, Daniel highlights some of McCarthy’s flaws. The Michigan product got in trouble when he tried to do too much instead of taking what the defense gave him. Sometimes, he tried to create plays that weren’t there. He occasionally missed easy reads. Daniel also highlights some of McCarthy’s positive attributes, like his arm strength and mobility. This goes back to the original role McCarthy was cast in as the quarterback for the Wolverines. He just had to not mess it up.
In seven of his 15 games last season, McCarthy threw the ball 20 times or less. In three more games, he threw the ball 25 times or less. He threw the ball exactly 30 times in a game twice, and his highest attempt number was 37 on November 4 against Purdue. By comparison, McCarthy threw the ball 20 times or less five times in 14 games during his first season as the starter. He had four more instances of throwing the ball 25 times or less, and two games between 26 and 30 attempts. He had three games with more than 30 attempts.
Williams, the projected No. 1 pick, never threw the ball less than 20 times in a game last year. He had four games with 25 or less attempts, and threw the ball 31 or more times in the rest of his contests with three instances of 40+ attempts. Daniels had one game with less than 20 attempts a year ago. He had four more games with 25 or less attempts, and four with between 26 and 30 attempts. Daniels threw the ball more than 30 times in three games, with his 37 attempts against Florida State being the highest. Maye didn’t throw less than 20 times in a game either last season. He had two games with 25 or less attempts and two games with exactly 30 attempts. In the rest of his games, Maye threw more than 30 times and hit 40+ attempts four times, topping out at 48 attempts in a loss to Virginia.
Even if Riddick thinks this type of stuff doesn’t matter, it does. The Wolverines weren’t reliant on McCarthy to win games, while the other three quarterbacks had to consistently put up big numbers to avoid losing. I am not suggesting McCarthy will be a bad quarterback because he threw the ball less than Williams, Daniels and Maye. What I am suggesting is it would be unreasonable to believe he would be in the same echelon as those quarterbacks if correcting for volume. He might show flashes of potential and occasionally make great plays but he didn’t have to do that consistently for his team to win. Why is there reason to believe he’ll do that when defenses are more complex and the game moves quicker?
McCarthy’s draft outlook and best fit
The oddsmakers might not be buying into the hype but they’ve set lines to account for it. McCarthy’s current draft position at DraftKings Sportsbook is set for 5.5 (over +150, under -190), suggesting he will be taken within the top five picks. The Bears, Commanders and Patriots are all in the market for a quarterback but do any have the setup where McCarthy wouldn’t have to elevate the entire offense? Chicago is the best bet of these three teams but the Bears are destined to take Williams. The Giants are in position at No. 6 to take a quarterback but they’re in a bit of a mess offensively. It’s hard to see McCarthy elevating that roster.
A QB-needy team like the Vikings or Broncos could trade up to grab McCarthy. Another thing driving McCarthy’s stock up is the lack of a superstar quarterback in the 2025 class, which means teams might take a chance on the Michigan product’s potential instead of hoping someone emerges next season. Minnesota has a strong setup offensively, which could allow McCarthy to develop important second-level skills behind the scenes while playing clean games on Sundays to help the team win. Denver is in a less favorable position, and Sean Payton’s allure has faded since he failed to successfully relaunch Russell Wilson’s career.
Will McCarthy be a good NFL quarterback?
As stated at the top, nobody knows the answer to this including NFL executives. However, I will offer a prediction on where I believe McCarthy ends up in the hierarchy of signal callers. Let’s do another blind resume.
QB 1 – 3,978 passing yards, 69.1 completion %, 27 TD, 13 INT
QB 2 – 4,933 passing yards, 61 completion %, 29 TD, 16 INT
The first quarterback is Jimmy Garoppolo in 2019, when he led the 49ers to the Super Bowl. The second quarterback is Eli Manning in 2011, who won the Super Bowl for a second time with the Giants. However you might feel about either quarterback, there’s no question you can be competitive at the highest level in the NFL without a superstar quarterback. So McCarthy can easily become a successful player, especially if he lands in a situation where the rest of the roster is largely stable. It’s time for one last resume comparison.
McCarthy final college season: 2,991 yards, 72.3 completion %, 9.0 yards per attempt, 22 TD, 4 INT, 202 rush yards, 3 TD
Mystery QB final college season: 3,188 yards, 71.7 completion %, 7.8 yards per attempt, 19 TD, 8 INT, 238 rush yards, 1 TD
The mystery quarterback in this example is Brock Purdy of the 49ers, who was a fringe MVP candidate at one point this season. Obviously, Purdy’s contract makes him much more valuable than the average young quarterback but McCarthy feels like he’s on a similar path. The only question is whether the supporting pieces will be up to the mark for his team to contend. I think McCarthy can definitely be a successful quarterback in the NFL but I don’t believe he can be the quarterback on a contender at a franchise-QB level contract.