The Cincinnati Reds are looking to build off achieving a winning record in 2023 with an even bigger 2024 season and will look to make a statement on Tuesday at home against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Philadelphia Phillies (-135, 8.5) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Andrew Abbott will get the start on the mound for the Reds, who has an ERA of 2.70 despite getting just 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The key to Abbott’s success thus far has been dropping a walks per nine innings rate that was 3.6 a season ago to 2.7 this season.
The Phillies counter with Cristopher Sanchez, who has a 2.53 ERA with just a 1.99 fielding independent thanks to his ability to cut down on the hard contact he has been surrendering.
Last season, Sanchez was issuing just 1.4 walks per nine innings but also allowing 1.4 home runs per nine innings a season ago, and at the cost of a few more walks with 3.4 walks per nine innings, has yet to give up a home run and has increased his strikeouts per nine innings from 8.7 last season to 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings this season.
An issue facing Sanchez and the Phillies though is what happens when the game gets handed to the bullpen, as Philadelphia entered the series last in the major leagues with a 5.78 bullpen ERA while the Reds entered the series 14th with a 3.79 ERA in the bullpen.
Also of concern for the Phillies is their drop in power away from home,, hammering over 1.4 home runs per game in Philadelphia compared to 0.5 away from home with their overall run production going from nearly 4.8 runs per game at home to 3.3 runs per game on the road.
With the Reds entering the series averaging 5.5 runs per game at home, the offense will lend enough production to get Abbott a win on Tuesday.
The Play: Reds +114
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