Every team is in action tonight starts at 6 pm ET. Let’s get into some bets I like for tonight on. DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Pick: Royals Team Total over 3.5 runs -125
So the Royals are going against Kevin Gausman tonight. Your initial thought might be “why are we targeting against Gausman.” Well, it’s early in the season, basketball is in playoff mode, so you may not be paying close attention. Gausman is REALLY struggling right now. Sure, he went five innings against the Yankees allowing just one run but in two starts prior, the Yankees and Rockies (on the road) tagged him for 11 runs on 14 hits through five innings. The red flag for Gasuman right now is a big dip in ground balls and a big increase in line drives. In his career, Gasuman induces about a 42% ground ball rate whereas currently he’s at just 34%. Line drives have jumped from 19% last year to 26% this year. While his last start was encouraging, his overall xERA of 7.73 still gives me some pause. At 3.5 runs, I’m ready to back the over on the Royals team total.
Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels
The Pick: Orioles run line -0.5 through first five innings -120
Orioles have a great matchup late tonight against the Angels and Griffin Canning. He probably wishes he was back at Spring Training because he’s been annihilated on the mound. Through four stats, which includes the Orioles, he’s allowed 18 runs (17 earned) on 25 hits, giving him an 8.05 ERA and an xERA of 5.36. The Orioles tagged him for five of those runs in his first start of the season when they met in Baltimore. This offense has been rolling lately, averaging 5.2 runs over their last five games. The Angels have been one of the worst teams through the first five innings on the run line, going 9-13.
Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals
The Pick: Game Total over 8.5 runs -118
I was expecting this total to be 9 runs, so I’ll take the 8.5. We have two struggling starters taking the mound in Tommy Henry and Steven Matz, so I’m expecting offense. Matz is going against one of the best hitting clubs against lefties in the Diamondbacks. They enter tonight with a .366 wOBA and a 131 wRC+, which rank second and fourth in the league. They also strikeout very little with a 15.7% K%. Matz has seen a massive drop in his strikeouts this season, as his 5.4 K/9 is currently the lowest of his career.
Henry has been hit hard by both sides of the plate, earning him a 6.87 ERA and an xERA of 5.56. The Cardinals haven’t been crushing lefties like the Diamondbacks are but they have a few players doing well against them. Specifically, Paul Goldschmidt, Ivan Herrera and Brandan Donovan. Regardless, Henry is allowing a ton of hard contact and I’d be shocked if he went more than five innings in this spot.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
