I’ve got a flight to catch tomorrow morning, so we’re going to dive into Monday’s MLB betting card a little earlier than usual. Where am I flying? That’s classified. What are the bets I like on the diamond? Those you can scroll down and find out. You’re welcome.
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Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels
Orioles ML (+102)
I was hoping to come out of the gate hot with an informative trend regarding how the Angels have performed as a favorite so far this season. What I found was even better. For the record, Los Angeles has won 33.3% of its games when favored in 2024. However, it’s far more telling that the team has only been favored three times in total. That’s just once more than the Athletics and the Nationals. Not exactly the best company to be keeping when we’re talking win expectancy.
The reason the Angels are the favorites on Monday is the pitching matchup. Reid Detmers has been amazing to begin the season, registering a 1.19 ERA and a 1.64 FIP across 22.2 innings. Still, Detmers is left-handed and the Orioles have thrived within that split since the beginning of 2023. Last year, Baltimore ranked top-10 against southpaws in both wOBA and wRC+. This year, the Orioles have the sixth-best wRC+ versus LHPs (124). It’s becoming a trend.
Starting for Baltimore is Albert Suarez, who tossed 5.2 scoreless frames in his Orioles debut last week against the Twins. Could that have been an anomaly? Sure. Suarez is a 34-year-old journeyman with time spent pitching in the KBO. However, Suarez was averaging 95.9 mph with his fastball in his outing versus Minnesota. He also managed an eye-popping 17.3% swinging strike rate. The samples are small, but those are figures that give me confidence in Suarez’s viability moving forward.
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Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
First 5: Under 4.5 (-115)
The Pirates with Jared Jones starting are a perfect storm for unders. Let’s start with Jones, who has been an absolute stud so far as a hard-throwing rookie. The 22-year-old has thrown just 23.0 innings in 2024, yet a 2.74 xERA speaks for itself. As do a 36.4% strikeout rate and a 16.00 K/BB ratio — the best qualified mark in all of baseball. Jones has had to pitch this well, as Pittsburgh is offering its ace little to no run support. To wit, over the last two weeks, the Pirates are slashing .213/.293/.304 as a team. In that same span, Pittsburgh has posted a .091 ISO and a 70 wRC+. Both those figures are good for 29th in MLB, ahead of only the lowly White Sox.
The key with this bet is the five inning timeline. For as fantastic as Jones has looked at the big league level, the Pirates are trying to protect their young stud. Jones has never exceeded 130 innings in a professional season and Pittsburgh is clearly trying to get creative in how it limits his workload in 2024. In Jones’ last outing against the Mets, the RHP was pulled after five scoreless innings despite throwing a mere 59 pitches. If Jones isn’t going to be around for the sixth, neither am I. It’s that simple.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
