The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics will begin their fourth playoff series in the last five postseasons Sunday when the two sides meet for Game 1 in the first round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs. The Heat come into this contest after defeating the Bulls Friday to capture the No. 8 seed, which is what they were last year when they went on a surprising run to the Finals. The Celtics enter the postseason as the No. 1 seed in the East and have the best record in the NBA. Boston won all three regular-season meetings between these two teams.
Jimmy Butler being sidelined is the biggest injury story for the Heat, who will also be without Terry Rozier. Kevin Love is good to go, while Duncan Robinson is questionable. The Celtics have listed Luke Kornet as out.
The Celtics are 14-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total sitting at 209. Boston is -1200 on the moneyline while Miami is +700.
Heat vs. Celtics, 1 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Celtics -14
Boston is 22-17-2 ATS on the season as a home favorite, while Miami is 17-9 ATS as a road underdog. Even though the Heat are without Butler and Rozier, this seems like too big of a spread to cover. However, I think the Celtics are looking to make a big statement after they fell to the Heat a year ago in the conference finals. Boston has more rest and went 37-4 straight up at home, so the Celtics should win this game without much fuss.
The Heat have been shooting the triple well in the play-in tournament but I see the Celtics clamping down on the perimeter and forcing Miami to attack the basket. That presents a challenge for Miami for Butler and Rozier out, and I think the triples don’t fall like they did in the games against Philly and Chicago. Give me Boston to cover this number Sunday afternoon.
Over/Under: Over 209
All three games in the regular season between these two teams went over this total. Even in the playoffs where things slow down and the officials let a little more go, I see the Celtics jumping out to a big lead and the Heat needing to catch up. Boston trended slightly to the over at 43-39 on the year while Miami trended to the under at 36-48 to the over. The Celtics were 22-19 to the over at home, and I foresee them being the aggressors in this game. I’ll take the over on this relatively low number.