One year after participating in the play-in tournament, the Oklahoma City Thunder took a massive leap to capture the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and will now be hoping to go on a deep playoff run. Their first opponent will be the New Orleans Pelicans, who won the second play-in game Friday to be the No. 8 seed. The Pelicans were able to advance despite losing Zion Williamson to a hamstring injury. Williamson is expected to be re-evaluated in two weeks.
Here’s a look at how the Thunder and Pelicans shape up against each other, along with our prediction for how the series plays out. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Thunder vs. Pelicans predictions
Odds to win series: Thunder -700, Pelicans +450
Regular season record: Thunder 57-25, Pelicans 49-33
Head-to-head record: Thunder 2-1
This line would be much more even if Williamson was in the fold for the Pelicans. The power forward was on fire in the first play-in game with 40 points and 11 rebounds before the hamstring injury forced him to leave the contest late. The Pelicans managed to scrap their way to a win over the Kings Friday, but this Thunder team is a well-oiled machine that is hungry for success. Oklahoma City’s youth might scare some people away from backing the team but this group has built up the franchise over the last few seasons and experienced a bit of the postseason environment a year ago.
Pick: Thunder in 5 games (+220)
Thunder point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is likely going to finish second in the MVP race, which tells you the kind of season he had. Chet Holmgren has emerged as a standout defensive player, while Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey are developing as offensive threats. The Thunder have solid role players as well, making them one of the most balanced teams in the postseason. They’ve done well in nearly every metric used to evaluate teams, with only their youth being held against them in the postseason. If the Pelicans were fully healthy, I think this would be a close series. However, Williamson being out shifts the balance of power significantly to Oklahoma City. CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram are worth one game, and it’s possible New Orleans gets good contributions from its role players to extend this series further. I feel that’s unlikely to happen though, which makes me lean towards the Thunder wrapping this series up quickly.