The No. 1 seed Boston Celtics, who have the best overall record in the NBA, will meet the No. 8 seed Miami Heat in the first round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs. This is one of two conference finals rematches from a season ago, as the Nuggets and Lakers are also meeting in the first round. The Celtics will be hoping for a different result than last season, while the Heat will attempt to spring another upset but will be without Jimmy Butler due to a sprained MCL.
Here’s a look at how these teams match up against each other, along with our prediction on how the series plays out. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Celtics vs. Heat predictions
Odds to win series: Celtics -3000, Heat +1300
Regular season record: Celtics 64-18, Heat 46-36
Head-to-head record: Celtics 3-0
The Celtics, as they did with most opponents, dominated the regular season series between the two sides. The big difference here is the lack of Butler’s presence, which the odds are accounting for. Butler is reportedly set to miss several weeks, which likely means he misses at least the first five games of this series if not more. Even if he is able to return, his production might be limited. The Celtics can’t overlook the Heat due to their playoff history but the talent gap is too much to ignore with Butler out.
Pick: Celtics in 5 games (+180)
There are situations where a team might overlook a weak opponent and give away a game or two. That happens in the middle of the regular season at times. However, Boston is on a mission after losing to the Heat in the conference finals a year ago. I don’t think the Celtics show any mercy and come out strong after having a week off to gather themselves. Butler can make a difference with his sheer willpower and playoff production but the Heat are unlikely to make real noise with him sidelined.
Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro should have solid series performances but the Celtics were the best team in the league for a reason. They smashed most advanced metrics and had an insane net rating, showcasing not only their talent but their ability to play together. They’re on a mission and won’t underestimate a team that has gotten the better of them multiple times in the playoffs. Give me Boston to wrap this up in five games.