The final pieces of the NBA playoff puzzle will be determined tonight, as both conferences will finally have the opponents for their respective No. 1 seeds illuminated. The No. 8 seed Heat will host the No. 9 seed Bulls in the Eastern Conference, while the No. 7 Pelicans will host the No. 9 seed Kings in the Western Conference. It’s win or go home. There are significant injuries, as Zion Williamson, Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier are out. Alex Caruso ($5,800) expects to play while Ayo Dosunmu ($6,100) is questionable. Keep track of all the pertinent injury updates at DK Live.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the Heat favored by 1.5 points at home over the Bulls. The total is 205.5. The visiting Kings are favored by 1.5 points over the Pelicans. The total is 210.5. During the regular season, Chicago was 19-22 on the road while Miami was 22-19 at home. The Kings were 22-19 on the road while the Pelicans were 21-19 at home. Interestingly, both the Heat and Pelicans were better on the road. Log into DK Sportsbook for the updates.
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Guard
Stud
Tyler Herro, Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls ($7,900) – Jimmy Butler is out so much of the offensive onus will be on Herro’s shoulders tonight. While he doesn’t see an increase in usage rate with Butler off the court, that number is still at 28 percent. On Wednesday, Herro played 41 minutes and garnered a 31.8 percent usage rate. He finished with 25 points and nine assists, translating to 40.5 DKFP. Over the last 10 games, the Bulls have been 22nd in defensive rating while boosting the FPPM to point guards by 10.52 percent. The projected ownership is high. If it gets too crazy, I may ponder pivoting to McCollum, who will likely be half the ownership.
Other Options – De’Aaron Fox ($8,800), CJ McCollum ($8,100), Coby White ($7,500)
Value
Delon Wright, Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls ($3,800) – Keon Ellis is probably the play here. He’s going to start, play a ton of minutes and has gone for 39.5, 30.75 and 27.25 DKFP over the last three games. Against the Pelicans four games ago, though, he played 24 minutes and put up 6.75 DKFP. That probably won’t happen again, but neither will shooting a perfect 8-for-8 from downtown while racking up eight steals and five blocks, like he’s done over the last three games. The projected ownership is high for Ellis and I think it’s within the range of outcomes that Wright comes close to matching him in DKFP. Both players average around .75 to 0.8 DKFP per minute. Ellis has him beat in playing time, as Wright likely will play in the low-20s. That said, he’s gone for 23.5, 31.75 and 21.5 DKFP over the last three games while playing 23, 29 and 19 minutes. Wright is $1,200 cheaper than Ellis and will be much lower-rostered.
Other Options – Keon Ellis ($5.000), Dalen Terry ($4,900) if Caruso and/or Dosunmu are out
Forward
Stud
DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat ($8,400) – DeRozan is remarkably consistent. Over the last 12 games, he’s gone for at least 40 DKFP in 11 with three of those over 50. He’s played 45 minutes in each of the last two contests and will likely receive a similar workload. The usage rate is often in the high-30s. He’s going to score, grab rebounds and dish out assists. With no Jimmy Butler, his job on the offensive end should be easier.
Value
Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans ($5,900) – Murray has been the perfect complementary piece alongside Fox and Sabonis. He’s shooting a tick under 36 percent from downtown while being an excellent cutter and attacker of closeouts. Over the last seven games, he’s gone for at least 33 DKFP in six with three over 40. On Tuesday against the Warriors, he played 39 minutes and produced 49.75 DKFP. He faced this Pelicans team four games ago and finished with 33.25 DKFP.
Other Options – Jaime Jaquez Jr. ($5,200), Haywood Highsmith ($4,600), Harrison Barnes ($4,500), Dalen Terry ($4,900) if Caruso and/or Dosunmu are out
Center
Stud
Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans ($9,500) – Sabonis led the league in double-doubles with 77, besting Jokic by nine. He also had 26 triple-doubles, one more than Jokic. He is an offensive hub for the Kings and will likely play close to 38 minutes. In five games against the Pelicans this season, he went for at least 40 DKFP in four with a high of 67.25.
Other Options – Bam Adebayo ($8,700), Nikola Vucevic ($7,800)
Value
Jonas Valanciunas, New Orleans Pelicans vs. Sacramento Kings ($4,900) – Valanciunas was often playing in the 18 to 20 minute range towards the end of the season. Often, opposing teams would go small while small-ball Zion was also employed. Well, Zion is out tonight and the Kings have Sabonis, so they won’t be going small. In five meetings with Sacramento this season, JV has played 33, 22, 30, 28 and 21 minutes. He’s double-doubled and put up over 30 DKFP in all.
Other Options – Kevin Love ($4,000)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
