The Stanley Cup playoffs have arrived! After dropping their regular season finale, 3-1, to the Ottawa Senators, the Boston Bruins allowed the Florida Panthers to jump them for first place in the Atlantic Division standings — locking Boston into a Round 1 playoff series against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Boston finished the 2023-24 season with a 47-20-15 record, 109 points and a +43 goal differential.
While Boston has shown its fair share of struggle this season, the mismatch on paper is very much in its favor. Florida clinching the Atlantic Division on Tuesday night allowed Boston to avoid having to face the Tampa Bay Lightning, a playoff-hungry squad, and instead face the Maple Leafs, a team that has not beaten Boston in a playoff series since 1959. The Bruins have won the last three playoff series against the Maple Leafs (2013, 2018 and 2019) and have even topped them in the last seven regular season meetings.
Now that I presented the mismatch on paper, it’s time to talk about the rather difficult challenges that Toronto will bring to Boston on a nightly basis. Boston has not been the same team this season and while that was somewhat expected with the amount of offseason turnover, Toronto’s offensive firepower could be a bit too much to handle. Auston Matthews (69G, 38A) is the league’s leading goal scorer and is backed up by stellar depth and talent that can also put the puck in the back of the net regularly.
Top Goal Scorer: David Pastrnak — 47 goals (Brad Marchand is second with 29 goals)
Top Point Getter: David Pastrnak — 110 points (Brad Marchand is second with 67 points)
Top Goaltender: Jeremy Swayman — 25-10-8 record, 2.53 goals against on average (GAA), .916 save percentage
Bruins expected schedule for Round 1:
- GAME 1: Saturday, April 20 vs. Toronto
- GAMES 2-7: TBD
Bruins DraftKings Fantasy Preview for Round 1
- These two teams come into this series having posted virtually the same records across the last 10 games to end the season — a 6-4-0 record for Boston and a 6-3-1 record for Toronto. In that span, the Bruins have averaged 2.6 goals but allowed just 2.4 goals per game while Toronto has averaged 3.8 goals and allowed 3.1 goals per game. If Boston’s goaltending doesn’t show up, there may be some trouble.
- When it comes to the offensive side of things, I’m sure it’s clear who has the advantage. Toronto ranks second in goals per game (3.63), seventh in shots per game (32.5), seventh in goal percentage (54.55%) and fourth in goals above expected (14.44). Led by Matthews and other high-quality pieces such as William Nylander (40G, 57A), Mitch Marner (26G, 59A) and John Tavares (28G, 36A), Toronto can explode any given night and if Boston can’t match that offensive firepower, this series may last longer than expected. However, Boston’s offensive excellence is a bit underrated — ranking fourth in goal percentage (56.59%), seventh in goals above expected (7.58) and seventh in high-danger chances. David Pastrnak (47G, 63A) played out of his mind at times, which helped Boston stack wins and steal games but Boston’s forward depth such as Charlie Coyle (25G, 35A) and Pavel Zacha (21G, 38A) stepped up when necessary and should carry the strong play into the playoffs.
- Now for the defensive side of things, Boston has a clear advantage — allowing the sixth-fewest goals per game (2.70) and ranking second in both goals against above expected (-33.84) and goal differential above expected (41.42). These rankings are all thanks to strong defensive play and goaltending from the top four and especially Jeremy Swayman (2.53 GAA and .916 save percentage) and Linus Ullmark (2.57 GAA and .917 save percentage), who come into the postseason as arguably the top goaltender duo. Toronto is a bit cursed when it comes to the playoffs as it is but its goaltending is likely going to be the reason for the heartbreak again. Whether it’s Ilya Samsonov (3.13 GAA and .890 save percentage) or one of Toronto’s other two fill-in goaltenders, Boston shouldn’t struggle to find the back of the net. Toronto may light up the scoreboard but it will also allow the opposing team to do the same — ranking 13th in goals allowed per game (3.15) and third in high-danger chances allowed (201). On top of that, the Maple Leafs deploy a bottom-10 penalty kill unit (76.9%) — an area that the Bruins should be able to take advantage of.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is huntersk) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
