The 2024 NBA play-in tournament will tip off Tuesday and we’ll get the 9-10 game in the Western Conference as the Golden State Warriors will visit the Sacramento Kings. Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET and the game will air on ESPN. The winner will advance to face the 7-8 loser for the No. 8 seed on Friday, while the loser will be eliminated from the postseason.
Golden State’s postseason hopes were in jeopardy in late March, but the team surged to win 10 of its last 12 games down the stretch. Despite this surge, the team could only secure the No. 10 seed in the West. Should the Warriors lose this elimination game, there’s a possibility that it will be the final contest for the “Big 3” of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green.
Sacramento is limping back into the postseason after losing seven of its last 11 games to end the regular season. The Kings’ struggles can be attributed to a pair of key players suffering injuries in late March. Kevin Huerter was lost for the season with a dislocated shoulder/torn labrum before Sixth Man of the Year candidate Malik Monk went down with a sprained MCL.
These two teams met one year ago in the first round of last year’s playoffs, where Golden State knocked off Sacramento in seven games. These two California foes split their regular season series with the Warriors taking the first two games before the Kings won the final two. It should be noted how tight their battles were as three of the four matchups were decided by one point.
On the injury front, Monk has been ruled out for the Kings and he’s expected to miss the first round should they advance out of the play-in tournament. For the Warriors, Gary Payton II (calf) has also been ruled out for tonight’s contest.
Golden State enters the matchup as a 2.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, accompanied by a total of 223.5. The Warriors are listed as a -142 moneyline favorite, making the Kings a +120 underdog.
Warriors vs. Kings, 10 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Warriors -2.5
The vibes of both teams couldn’t be any more different as Golden State arguably played its best basketball in the final two weeks of the season while the Huerter/Monk injuries took the wind out of Sacramento’s sails. On top of this, the Kings were underachievers at home against the spread, posting an 18-23 ATS record at the Golden 1 Center this season. I expect the Warriors to have a heightened sense of urgency tonight and I think they win comfortably to advance.
Over/Under: Under 223.5
Defensive intensity usually ramps up in the postseason, along with the officials calling less ticky-tack fouls. Combine this with Sacramento struggling to crack 110 points in several of its games down the stretch and I think we’re in for the under to cash.